Nervous US allies at NATO are scrambling to keep President Donald Trump engaged by upping defence spending, vowing to take the reins on Ukraine and queueing for face time at the White House.
But as his administration savages Europe, undercuts Kyiv and warms to Russia, Western diplomats fret that even if the alliance is salvaged it runs the risk of being hollowed out.
“We know the direction: less US in the alliance,” said one NATO diplomat, talking like others on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive subjects.
“Our interest is to keep the maximum US in the alliance.”
So far, US officials have insisted that Washington remains committed to an alliance that has seen American military might underpin Western security for over seven decades.
That’s at least some reassurance after Trump reportedly threatened to pull the United States out entirely during his first term.
Still, the warning signs are flashing red.
Those range from the deep contempt for Europe voiced by Trump’s team, to territorial threats against Greenland and Canada, and the president’s threats to only protect allies spending enough that strike at the heart of NATO’s mutual defence pledge.
Meanwhile, as Washington makes clear it could shift forces away from Europe to focus on other challenges, Trump’s outreach to Russia has unleashed fears he could end up siding with number one nemesis Moscow.
“The level of optimism is certainly dropping,” a second NATO diplomat told AFP.
“The US still hasn’t taken any concrete decisions, but every day seems to bring another hit against the foundations of the alliance.”
Withdrawing from Europe?
US defence chief Pete Hegseth fired the first shots in February, warning European allies in a fiery debut at NATO that they would have to “take ownership of conventional security on the continent”, with Washington “prioritising deterring war with China in the Pacific”.
Trump’s is not the first US administration to float pulling back from Europe: Barack Obama vowed a “pivot to Asia” in 2011.
“We always knew that the moment would come when America would sort of step back and Europe would have to do more — and that’s not a bad thing,” said Jamie Shea, a former NATO official now with the Chatham House think tank.
“The idea is to try to keep as much American engagement as you possibly can, and if they do start withdrawing, at least trying to make sure that they withdraw the less important stuff and the door is always open for them to ramp up again.”
Diplomats and officials insist that if the United States is planning to scale down its presence in Europe then it needs to lay out a clear timeline so as not to leave gaps in the continent’s defence.
Europe is ramping up its expenditure and weapons production to be ready, spurred on by Trump’s demand to more than double NATO’s spending target to five percent of GDP.