We are living in interesting times. Until January 20, 2025, one could not think that the Cold War rivals would vote together on a UNSC Resolution to end the war in Ukraine. This demonstrates that the international order is fast evolving and perhaps heading for an era vastly different from previous centuries.
The convergence of interests between the US and Russia is shaking the European powers, who were so used to getting US security coverage. However, US President Trump is determined that the European states must pay for their security. Most European states fear that if the US withdraws from NATO, they will be vulnerable to Russia’s might, which is further emboldened by an imminent victory in the Ukraine war.
Bismarck was right when he insisted that politics is the art of the possible. Lord Palmesrton also had similar ideas in a different tenor; there are no permanent friends and foes in international relations, only the interests.
These quotes amply demonstrate that convergence of interests between the arch rivals was possible even if the probability was low until a few months ago. However, another major player in the field, China, is not rising but has already risen to a level to be regarded as a world power. That means the international system is not reverting from unipolarity to bipolarity but multipolarity.
Bismarck was right when he insisted that politics is the art of the possible.
While China has aligned itself with Russia through BRICS and SCO, the US has still not reconciled with China’s rise and considers it a more significant threat than Russia due to its increasing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. However, it appears as if Trump will ultimately accept China as a real power and start working with it as he has done so with Russia.
Should that happen and happen soon, the international system will embark upon a journey of productive engagement instead of destructive entanglement. I may sound a bit too optimistic knowing fully well that the global system is based on the precepts of realism which does not augur well with liberal thoughts, however, there is no harm in being an optimist for the good of humanity. Therefore, without jumping to conclusions, I am not ruling out the possibility of three big powers working together to meet more serious challenges society faces, like pandemics, climate change, energy, cyber warfare, and threats from non-state actors (NSAs).
Although the probability of such a scenario is high, it does exist due to the game-changers at the helm of affairs: Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping. Trump is at a disadvantage compared to Putin and Xi because he cannot stay in the White House beyond 2028, whereas Putin and Xi can stay in their respective offices beyond that period.
Nevertheless, Trump’s determination to keep the world out of wars may greatly help me accomplish my dream that the major stakeholders must engage themselves productively, instead of destructively, as has been the case during the entire 20th Century and the first quarter of 21st Century.
At the cost of repeating, it may be necessary to mention that nearly all wars of the 21st Century have been between the Unequal Military Powers (UMPs), in which one side was led by the US and the other was a poor developing country without a worthwhile military machine, like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, etc. The results of wars between UMPs were obvious: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria will never be the same.
It is therefore essential that the wars between UMPs do not take place in any region, and three powers: the US, Russia, and China do not have to fight each other, the proxies as had been the case during the cold war era after the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) had been established. The game would appear to change only when the proxies of the global powers do not war for their masters and instead demand them for their fair share in the development and growth of their states.
There is little doubt that even in the era of multipolarity, the big powers will continue to hunt for the acquisition of more power and resources from the developing states, but that should happen without violence and with due share to the host country.
The old-styled colonialism must be done away with at once, and the developing states must feel that they are sovereign nations and can use their resources to better their people. The old colonial masters like the UK and France must not be allowed to continue the exploitation of their erstwhile colonies, particularly in Africa.
Should that happen, one would say that the gamechangers are here. I remain very hopeful of this change even if the probability is low due to the prevalence of realism as the driving force in the international system.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”