Iran, Iraq and now Lebanon on January 28, 2020There is never a shortage of crises in the Middle East. As if there wasn’t enough trouble in the region, now Lebanon is going through popular protests against the existing political order. I will come to that later. First, we have the smoldering US-Iran crisis, which might, at any time, get out of hand to […]
Are we close to war on Iran? on January 13, 2020The targeted killing of General Qassem Soleimani, much respected in Iran, by a US drone strike at Baghdad airport is regarded by Iran as a declaration of war. For Donald Trump, it is simply “ridding the world of their [Iran’s] terrorist leader who had just killed an American and wounded many others [at a US military […]
Iran in crisis on December 13, 2019It must have come as a shock to Tehran when Iraqi protesters burnt down the country’s consulate in Najaf. After all, Iran was a ‘fraternal’ country of Shia faith, and had helped Iraqis in all sorts of ways during recent years. It had given shelter to Iraqi leaders escaping Saddam Hussein’s tyranny and persecution. It […]
No respite for Iraq on December 5, 2019The Middle East is one region where things can generally go wrong with unpredictable consequences. I am referring here to developments in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. Iraq and Iran share one commonality, which is that they are both predominantly Shia. In the case of Lebanon, it hasa substantial Shia population, with an important bearing on […]
Trump and the Western alliance on November 20, 2019The post-WW 11 global order, largely underwritten by the US and its victorious allies, is under tremendous strain. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in the nineties, the world entered a new unipolar era with the US as the only superpower. But that didn’t last and now, the Western alliance system is in some […]
Trump’s Syrian logic on November 2, 2019I will come to this later but, first, it might make sense to create some sense, if that is possible, of Trump’s decision. A narrative seems to be emerging, even though its different strands are, at times, contradictory and being woven to fit a fast-changing situation. The broad narrative goes like this. It is said […]
Trump’s go-ahead to Turkey on October 17, 2019As if the Middle East weren’t already an explosive region, President Trump has facilitated another flare-up. By this, I mean the (implied) go-ahead he has given to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey to go after Syria’s Kurds, who played a determining role in the defeat of Islamic State and, in the process, lost 11,000 […]
The US in crisis on October 8, 2019The US, the world’s most powerful country, is in crisis. It is in crisis because President Donald Trump has it wrapped in his own personal/political life. At the basic level, Trump sees himself as a genius destined to make America great again. Which implies that, before he became President, the US was in decline as […]
Middle East: on the brink on September 24, 2019Who would have expected that the Houthis from Yemen would suddenly attract the world’s attention with their drone attacks on Saudi oil refineries? But that is what precisely happened the other day, when these attacks, affecting the production of nearly six million barrels of crude oil, representing more than half of the kingdom’s output and […]
Saudi Arabia’s risky Trump connection on August 30, 2019Ever since Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was bumped up to become Crown Prince by his father King Salman, not long after he succeeded King Abdullah on his death at 90 years of age, much of the talk is around MBS who is now the effective ruler of the Saudi kingdom. There are reports that King […]