A modern military conflict on an unprecedented scale opened in February 2022 when Russia initiated its full-bore invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine, despite facing Russia’s overwhelming military advantages, adapted the fight into siege warfare and, in doing so, turned the war into a war of attrition. It provides a prior essential context in how these technologies work and how effective they are in traditional combat, helping calibrate expectations of their battle potential.
This conflict gives us the first glimpse of what future wars could look like and also how emerging technologies, drones, and artificial intelligence (AI) add to today’s battles. As the first major conflict of the “AI age,” however, the war in Ukraine remains a vital case study for examining the role of these technologies in modern warfare. Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the war has gone through several phases, driven by changing military strategies, the use of new technologies, and shifting global dynamics. By mid-2022, the fighting had descended into a brutal battle by position, characterized by brutal salvos of artillery. In retaliation, Russia sharpened its tactics, ramping missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s small but critical energy drone infrastructure. It also marked the start of the war’s no-holds-barred, high-casualty attritional phase as exemplified by the drawn-out and bloody fight for Bakhmut, in which Wagner PMC forces were a key factor in Russia’s ultimately successful but very costly push In the Donbas, both sides took heavy casualties, and Ukraine grew increasingly dependent on advanced weaponry provided by the West. By September 2022, the tide had turned sharply in Ukraine’s favour as it mounted a successful counter-offensive, seizing hundreds of square miles of occupied territory and laying siege to Kherson. Ukraine’s second major counteroffensive, in mid-2023, intended to re-capture lost ground, was generally blunted by Russia’s deeply dug-in defences; however, Ukraine successfully used unmanned drones and maritime strikes to degrade Russia’s Black Sea fleet. By early 2024, the fighting reached another deadlock, though the momentum has gradually favoured Russia, which, while taking heavy casualties, still enjoys an edge in resources and troop strength. As Western support falters, and with Ukraine struggling to maintain the workforce and military capacity, the trajectory of the war is unclear as both sides brace for what might be a decisive year.
Success will increasingly be a matter of technology, not just of how well technology is integrated into actual operations but also of how rapidly militaries can?transform to meet changing realities on the battlefield.
Drones are now essential in modern warfare, providing advantages in intelligence, reconnaissance, and striking capabilities. Ukraine has made effective use of a range of drones, from high-end military-grade drones like the Turkish TB2 to off-the-shelf commercial drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Technologies have grown critical to the war, facilitating data analysis, improving reconnaissance, and assisting in decision-making. Ukraine has deployed AI for artillery targeting and management capabilities on the battlefield, most prominently through various applications such as GIS Arta and DELTA. AI has also been involved in disinformation campaigns, creating convincing deepfake psyops.
But even if drones and other modern technologies provide advantages, they cannot substitute the necessity for such traditional armaments as tanks, artillery, and ammunition. Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, deepfake, and natural language processing are incorporated into warfare, yet their effects on battlefield outcomes have been minimal. AI’s role as an analytical enabler has also been pivotal for efficiency improvements. However, it is still nascent in adoption and not yet a defining factor in the outcome of conflicts. The main point is that the most essential thing in war is adaptation. Success will increasingly be a matter of technology, not just of how well that technology is integrated into actual operations but also of how rapidly militaries can transform to meet changing realities on the battlefield. Technology will continue to proliferate, but the core elements like planning, logistics, and personnel quality remain vital for military success. In the face of those technological improvements, the old fundamentals of warfare-people, firepower, and methods-are still critical to victory on the battlefield. This conflict reminds us that, while technology is ever more crucial, war is always primarily a human activity. However, as technology continues to shape modern strife, we must not forget that many things fundamental to war, huge, high-intensity conflicts, remain unaltered.
The writer can be reached at danialihsanndu @gmail.com