New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern won global acclaim for her response to the Christchurch mosque shootings — but 12 months on, her political future hangs in the balance and there are signs “Jacinda-mania” has peaked. The centre-left leader had been in office barely 18 months on March 15 last year when a self-avowed white supremacist opened fire at two mosques during Friday prayers, killing 51 and injuring another 40.
Faced with a crisis unprecedented in New Zealand’s modern history, Ardern rose to the challenge with a mixture of compassion and decisive action.
She offered support for New Zealand’s Muslims, rejected the shooter’s ideology, immediately moved to tighten gun laws and launched a global initiative to curb online extremism.
Ardern’s personal popularity rating peaked at 51 percent shortly after the shootings and her Labour Party briefly reached similar levels, setting her on a path to reelection in polls set for later this year.
But the September 19 vote is now looking uncomfortably tight for the 39-year-old, with the centre-right National Party edging ahead five points in opinion polls to 46 percent.
Labour’s support has not fallen off a cliff but appears to have plateaued amid perceptions it has failed to deliver on issues such as affordable housing and reducing child poverty.
It joined forces with two minor parties to form a government after the 2017 election, but one of its coalition partners, New Zealand First, is currently flatlining in the polls. Professor Stephen Levine, a political scientist at Wellington’s Victoria University, said Ardern — like US leaders John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama before her — was more popular overseas than with domestic audiences.