Pakistan has reached a stalemate in both foreign and domestic policy decisions. It finds it difficult to recalibrate its bilateral relations with the most important regional countries, and the major powers of the world, and overcome its domestic political, economic, constitutional and security predicaments. The more the country struggles to put its house in order and regain its erstwhile position to play a dynamic role at the regional and international level, the deeper it sinks in the vortex of challenges. The geopolitical and geostrategic landscape in many regions has been rapidly changing necessitating a thorough review of foreign and security policies and domestic strengths and weaknesses to keep pace with the flux international situation.
In foreign policy domain, there are certain stark realities we have to reckon with. The world order would be underlined by a tough competition rather a confrontation between the US and China in the coming decades. Notwithstanding its important geographical situation, Pakistan has been replaced by India as the geostrategic ally of the USA as a counterweight to China in South Asia and Asia pacific regions. Pakistan could be placed in the opposite camp if the Sino-US confrontation further escalates. China has been an all-weather friend and a trusted ally with all its strategic and economic support to Pakistan despite our failure to provide impregnable security to its citizens working on the CPEC in the country. We should leave no stone unturned to meet the Chinese concerns on this count. Simultaneously, we should do our maximum to avoid falling victim of the Donald Trump’s blunt weapon of tariffs and sanctions. We need a tight rope walk to balance our bilateral relations with both countries.
The PDM regime neither has the will nor the capacity to undertake any fire-tending act.
The US would not restrict India in missile development and amassing nuclear arsenal believing the Indian narrative of the misperceived security threat from China. Instead, it would pressurize Pakistan to restrict its efforts to match the Indian missile development or to have a credible deterrence against any security threat from India. Hence, the sanctions. Paradoxically, this would mean to free India from any distraction so that it could fully focus on China. India would not feel any compulsion to normalize relations with Pakistan knowing fully that the latter is deeply stuck in a vortex of domestic political and economic challenges and would be unable to create any challenge for it in the occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Rather, the Indian are well conscious of their advantageous position to create difficulties for Pakistan from the Afghan soil.
The Taliban 2.0 have turned out as the most annoying adversary with their reluctance to recognize the Durand Line as the International border; to take punitive action against the TTP or stop it and BLA from using their soil for terrorist attacks within Pakistan. They say Pakistan should tackle the TTP elements who travel long distances from the border to undertake terrorist attacks deep inside its territory. Similarly, they are bitterly angry over the introduction of border management measures including formal visa or mutually accepted travel and immigration documents. They also resent security check posts along the border which, they say, cause hardships for Pashtun tribes straddling the border. And that their country should be treated as a sovereign state rather than a vassal state. They know they have more leverages to compel Islamabad to hear them seriously.
The imbroglio with the Taliban could only be dealt with through dialogue. The kinetic approach would worsen the situation. Pakistan, therefore, has to make adjustments in its Afghan foreign policy. Similarly, we have to recalibrate our bilateral relations with Iran. We have certain border management issues with Iran in the contiguous regions of Balochistan. The Baloch insurgents, of late, have become very active in the border regions of Turbat and Panjgur. The new vistas opened by the political change in Bangladesh would have to be grabbed for improved bilateral relations. Bangladesh has long been under the influence of India and quite hostile to Pakistan. The new rulers have made some friendly gestures for an improved relationship. We should not let this opportunity go waste.
The foreign policy of a country is an extension of its domestic situation. Without political stability and economic strength at home, the foreign policy is like an instrument less music. Unfortunately, in the domestic domain, we have many fires that need tending. The political polarization triggered by the no-confidence motion of 10 April 2022 has refused to die down. There has been a tough tussle between the aggrieved PTI and the power wielders to outdo each other rendering every other political stakeholder irrelevant. The PDM regime neither has the will nor the capacity to undertake any fire tending act. Rather it has vainly used all the state’s coercive power to get over the ascending political fortunes of the incarcerated PTI founder. All the criminal and corruption cases, incarcerations, violent clashes, pre-poll rigging, engineered electoral results have failed to weaken the resolve of the PTI leadership to stay their course for the supremacy of constitutional rule. The party is at the zenith of its popularity.
This confrontational politics has left every national institution bruised. From the Election Commission to the Judiciary, Parliament, bureaucratic machinery and media – all have been badly damaged and their credibility for constitutional responsibilities undermined. The Constitution has been amended to render the constitutional institutions vulnerable to executive’s manipulation particularly the third state organ – Judiciary – which has been intently pushed into a deep crisis.
The creation of a working relationship between the regime and the opposition is the responsibility of the ruling party. We know it is not easy for the coalition regime to acquiesce in the demands of PTI to restrain and restrict some national institutions to their constitutional functions, and hold general elections. The tactical retreat has always been part of valor in politics being the game of flexibility and give-and-take. The PTI and its adversaries both could consider this time tested principle to end this nerve-wracking political tug of war and return the country to political normalcy.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.