If 2024 were all about efforts to stay on course, the government would have one believe that the ongoing year would prove to be a culmination of its hard work. Going by the headlines, they might actually have some reason to celebrate. In contrast to the dismal outlook of the past, exports to Europe are said to have surged to an impressive $3.8 billion.
This highlights the hard-fought access our entrepreneurs have garnered, demonstrating their ingenuity. Furthermore, forecasts from the UN indicating a potential economic expansion of approximately 3.4 per cent in FY25 serve as a beacon amidst a challenging global landscape. The rise in remittances, surpassing the $30 billion mark, would similarly stabilise our economy, acting as a crucial lifeline for families and national coffers alike. That Pakistan’s economy has managed to rebound from the 2022-23 downturn – despite the presence of rampant political sloganeering and relentless attempts to undermine its credibility in the international market – makes these achievements a tad more memorable.
However, these positive developments must be tempered with caution. The fact remains that the government’s hands are tied by its commitments to the Fund when it comes to the rising cost of energy. Thus, any temporary reprieve would have to sooner, rather than later, end, throwing a spanner in the industrial plans for recovery. The consequences of a significant hike in operating costs for key sectors, such as textiles – which has announced a surprising 10 per cent year-on-year growth in exports – are clear and concerning. Additionally, the darker undercurrents for the agriculture sector, once the backbone of our economy, suffocating under the baggage of outdated practices and lack of investment, cannot be ignored.
The government’s newfound emphasis on trade relations may shine as a flickering candle in a storm but would amount to little if Pakistan does not have enough in its basket to offer the world. While infrastructural improvements and ambitious plans under the CPEC, that claim to transform Gwadar into the jewel of the country’s economic future inspire hope for what lies ahead, we must be vigilant, we must tread carefully. Building roads and bridges is merely a starting point; a truly interconnected and collaborative economic landscape requires much more. *