The dangers of denying the downsides to globalisation on March 26, 2018President Trump’s tariffs are upsetting on at least three levels. First, although exemptions will dampen their negative effect, they are bad policy. Second, they are a frightening reminder that any human barriers between Trump’s instincts and economic policy is weakening. Third, the establishment’s reaction to them is a reminder that too many powerful people remain […]
Kudlownomics: Thoughts on new economics chief Larry Kudlow on March 19, 2018My old friend and longtime CNBC colleague Larry Kudlow is taking the helm of President Trump’s National Economic Council (it’s a political appointment; no congressional approval required). A few folks have asked me for my take on the appointment, so here it is. First, however, let me point out that while we’ve been on opposing […]
The economic boom is all well and good, but spreading its benefits to everyone will take serious work on February 4, 2018Even amid great political uncertainty, both the United States and the global economy are enjoying a moment of optimism. What John Maynard Keynes called “animal spirits” – what we think of as consumer and business confidence – are robust. This is not a trivial factor. Positive psychology, sentiments and expectations influence economic outcomes, helping to […]
First impressions of the tax cut: Positives, negatives and a wild card on January 1, 2018There’s been a lot of speculating as to whether President Trump’s tax plan will help or hurt his party next year. We’ll know soon enough, so no point in leaning too far into this question, but here are things to watch for. On balance, I think they tilt against the plan’s reception. To be clear, […]
Sure, wages are growing; but they should be growing faster on December 10, 2017Okay, fellow nerds. Here’s a revealing graph of the current job market, if I may make such a comment about my own graph. But before I get to the figure, let me build up the tension with a bit of context. Friday’s jobs report was another solid one, showing 228,000 jobs and with the unemployment […]
Psst … Hey, Republicans … Wanna see some payfors? on October 9, 2017Who’d a thunk it? Politicians whose constituents get hit by one of the main “payfors” in the Republicans’ tax plan are strongly objecting to that part of the plan. I’m talking about the elimination of taxpayers’ ability to deduct state and local taxes (SALT) from federal liabilities, a change that would offset $1.3 trillion of […]
Psst … Hey, Republicans … Wanna see some payfors? on October 9, 2017Who’d a thunk it? Politicians whose constituents get hit by one of the main “payfors” in the Republicans’ tax plan are strongly objecting to that part of the plan. I’m talking about the elimination of taxpayers’ ability to deduct state and local taxes (SALT) from federal liabilities, a change that would offset $1.3 trillion of […]
Trumps tax cuts: theyre even more regressive than I thought on August 21, 2017One of the most unfortunate and misleading myths in fiscal politics and policy since Ronald Reagan is that tax cuts are, at worst, costless and, at best, a boon to growth. They are, in this mythology, not just a free lunch but also one that comes with endless bags of free groceries. This trickle-down sales […]
Is the US labour market finally at full employment? Not according to the inflation numbers on May 15, 2017April showers brought more hours. Hours of work, that is, as Friday morning’s employment report showed that employers added 211,000 jobs in April, as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4 percent, its lowest level since May 2007.Other measures of labor market slack also showed notable gains. The underemployment rate, at 8.6 percent, is about […]
The increasing importance of a Labor Department that understands the threats to workers in the current economy on February 27, 2017American workers got a very big break when Andrew Puzder withdrew his nomination for labor secretary. Created in 1913, the Labor Department’s mission is “to foster, promote, and develop the welfare of the wage earners, job seekers, and retirees of the United States; improve working conditions; advance opportunities for profitable employment; and assure work-related benefits […]