From an erstwhile stake-holder to strategic rejuvenator, China has redefined its role as the shaper of a new global order. China has strived to build the new world order along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); changing pathways from passive integration into the Western system since the 1911 Revolution. In terms of scale and magnitude, China’s ascendance to pre-eminence matches the US rise to power between the Civil War (1861-1865) and First World War (1914-1919). With the period of strategic opportunity 2025 drawing closer, Chinese clout has marked profound, political, economic, cultural and ideological effects on the global order.
China’s global strategy rests on the inherent historic legacy of belonging to the community of great powers. China’s diplomacy is an important indicator of how the state views its future role. Chinese projection of “major-power” status accredits Beijing with an improved voice in forums of global economic governance. China’s demand for “a major power status” seeks the restructuring of the international system; reflecting a change in the global power hierarchy. China’s new political stature results from the US’s loss of hegemony on the globe. Periodic rounds of China threat thesis, particularly nearing the US elections, aim at warding off Beijing’s march towards progress.
Multilateralism and China’s inflating global role as a great power have paid dividends in granting a soft power image to Beijing. Chinese scholar, Wenshan Jia, has referred to China’s growth as Chi-globalisation; offering a creative fusion of the Eastern and Western cultures. China’s growth and role in the process of globalisation offers a major transformation to the US role model of the world sole superpower. China has unavoidably modified the status-quo; defining its interests more expansively while asserting a greater degree of international influence.
China’s resurgence has added a new dimension to the global order; transforming Sino-US relations
China’s rise has entailed opportunities for global growth. Participation in bilateral and multilateral forums have allowed China to emerge as the number one trading partner of the US, Japan, Taiwan, India, the EU and the ASEAN. In the wider Asia, towards the west, China’s economic interests have extended to Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and Europe. To the east, the Chinese curve of energy security has stretched from the South China Sea to Indian Ocean, Myanmar, South Asia, to the Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and Africa. To China’s North and Northwest, Chinese demographic and corporate influence has extended to Mongolia, Far East and beyond.
China’s resurgence has added a new dimension to the global order; transforming Sino-US relations. Economic interdependence worth billions of dollars trade and clash of national security objectives have defined US-China relations, framing on a unique complexity at all three levels of strategic, political and economic dimensions. Sino-US relations mark intense standoffs to a complex mix of diplomacy and intertwined economies. The US seeks to maintain the established international system based on preferred values, interests, institutions and soft power asymmetry.
Entailing one-fifth of the world’s population, China shares borders with fourteen states covering a vast continent-wide area. A civilisation traceable to 3000 years old or more, China has cemented its status as a giant in economic, military, technological and diplomatic dimensions being the top manufacturer and trader. Tremendous clout accredits China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculated above two digits for the past several decades. With a GDP of $14.40 trillion in 2019, China has emerged as the world’s second-largest economy, maintaining the largest foreign currency reserves estimated at $3.1billion in the US Treasury bonds. Socio-economic success has helped China to drag 600 million people out of poverty. From a mere $2 billion in 1978, the country’s trade surplus amounted to $421.9 billion in 2019.
China has emerged as the biggest investor and trade partner for many states in the Middle East. China has a lesser appetite to substitute the US security role in the region. China has consolidated its position as the engine of global economic growth in recent decades. Companies keep stock of credit risks and trends in the Chinese economy, to discern the direct impact on the world economy. Fluctuations in the Chinese economy such as slowdown may bear direct consequences for world trade, commodity prices and financial markets.
With a population of 1.3 billion people, and expanding consumer wealth, companies worldwide have a natural incentive to benefit from China’s growth. Labour incentive and low-cost advantage to foreign investors has made China the largest manufacturing economy. Investments reforms and incentives made China the world’s fastest economy. FDI in China recorded the biggest increase since 2017; amounting to $136.71 billion in 2019. China has become the highest recipient of FDI in Asia, due to tax relaxations and low labour wages, which kept the costs of production low. FDI with foreign managerial practices earned China technically advanced manufacturing processes, contributing to almost 60 per cent of Chinese exports.
The US, EU or France manufacturing companies are producing goods in China, with free access to local markets. China provides a $250 billion market to US companies, despite the trade war. Beijing is the US third-largest export market, behind only to Canada and Mexico. Complex interdependence entangles the US and Chinese economies together. Decoupling of the US companies from the Chinese market and economy has posed serious problems for the US. European access to Chinese markets remains equally high.
Chinese investments have provided the incentive for the success of foreign economies, creating jobs worldwide. Located at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has rejuvenated China’s relationship with Pakistan in multiple new dimensions. CPEC passage across the Karakoram to the south makes Pakistan an integral part of China’s global strategy. A qualitative change has accredited China’s increased role as a responsible member of the international community. China’s cooperative humanitarian mechanism and soft power projection has won diplomatic favours from several African and Asian states. China participation in the UN peacekeeping missions, international disaster relief management, counter-terrorism, counter-piracy missions has won global laurels from many quarters.
Beijing strives to become the architect of the new global order. The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy has redefined China as a strategic competitor. Trump’s “State of the Union Address” has revealed Washington’s optimal policy of preventing Beijing “to take undue advantage of the US.” Washington has sought “strategic denial” to contain Sino-Russian expansion of influence in Asia. Contentious disputes have strained Washington’s relations with China in the South China Sea. Beijing’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea has raised the US concern for stability in a highly volatile and militarized region.
From Obama to Trump, Washington has induced Cold War binary divisions in the Asia-Pacific region. As the potential for Sino-US security competition remains high, states are enjoined to choose between the US or China. Beijing accuses the US to pin China down in the Asia-Pacific region bolstering its alliance with Quads partners. However, the US argues that its risk reduction strategy aims at re-engagement and reassurance with key allies in the region. Chinese military budget has marked an increase of 8.5 per cent, showing $175 billion in 2019. Although not diametrically opposed, both sides seek to undermine other’s military dominance and capability in the Asia-Pacific region.
At the domestic level, the influence of governmental and civic institutions, internal politics, ideologies, public opinions and influence of individual political leaders have determined Sino-US bilateral relations. At the global level, Sino-US bilateral relations are influenced by each other’s presence in international organisations and regimes. Within Asia, the global strategic environment has marked Sino-US peer competition. China has remained apprehensive of the US encirclement and ideological subversion. However, Sino-US economic interdependence involving mutual vulnerabilities, fear of political backlash, lack of partners’ support, loss of trade and high stakes in FDI prevent outright counter China strategy.
China has followed a policy of economic integration and institutionalism to build international strength. Fareed Zakaria has termed China both different and unique. Western theoretical bifocals fail to explain China’s integral role in the world economy. China dominates Asia, Middle East and Europe based on its economic success. Chinese participation in multilateral forums has increased Beijing’s international role. Economic imperatives of complex interdependence and multilateral institutions mark the growth of China’s global power in the future. As China’s role expands, economic and monetary transactions will bolster Beijing’s capacity further to break US hegemony and rewrite the hierarchy of international world order.
The writer is Assist. Prof. FCS, National Defence University