Though dimly reported, in the early morning of July 15, militants belonging to the Jaish-e Fursan-e Muhammad led by Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a militant commander from North Waziristan, attacked the Bannu cantonment. Though the attempt was foiled by the security forces, militants made their intention clear: they were at an undeclared war against Pakistan. The offender this time was a faction of the Tehreke-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The attack coincides with a monitoring report updated until May 28 this year issued by the United Nations stating that the attack of the TTP against Pakistan have increased significantly from 573 in 2021 to 715 in 2022 and 1, 2010 in 2023, with the rising trend of attack continuing into 2024. This part of the report indicates two points unequivocally: first, the TTP is getting powerful enough to challenge Pakistan, and second, the TTP persists with its antagonistic trends harming Pakistan.
The monitoring report (number 15th) submitted to the UNSC also says that Afghanistan offer sanctuaries to several militant groups working against Pakistan. Of these groups, the TTP is the largest terror group, which outmanoeuvres other groups by manpower and equipment, besides the support it seeks from the Taliban government ruling over Kabul. Moreover, the al-Qaeda’s remnants which survived the two decade long (2001-2021) war on terror are still extant in Afghanistan and, after the Afghan Taliban, they are the next major supplier of operational and logistical support to the TTP.
The TTP persists with its antagonistic trends harming Pakistan.
The report just substantiated what had been published in Pakistan’s national dailies about the ever expanding outreach of the TTP, and the consequent uptick in terrorist activities inside Pakistan. However, what the report has not mentioned is that one of main reasons for the intensification of attacks against Pakistan was the light military equipment especially guns, ammunition and ancillary war gear which the TTP happened to alight on after the forces of the United States (US) and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) left behind intact, unharmed. It was despite the fact that the vacating US-NATO forces ensured to destroy the heavy military equipment. This is why many analysts in Pakistan believe that the US-NATO forces left the light weaponry behind undamaged intentionally to be used by the local Afghans, who are in a habit of fighting internecine wars.
The US-NATO command was cognizant of five main points. First, the TTP had taken refuge in the area of Afghanistan which was sharing a border with Pakistan. Second, the TTP was in coalition with the Afghan Taliban who were poised to take over Kabul. Third, amongst the Afghan Taliban, there were factions which had promoted Doha talks with the US command by excluding Pakistan from the negotiating table. These factions were averse to Pakistan. Fourth, after vacating Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, the TTP might get access to the light weaponry being left undamaged. Fifth, any nexus between these factions of the Afghan Taliban and the TTP would work against peace and security of Pakistan.
To add insult to injury, the report has validated the fear that the Afghan Taliban do not conceive of the TTP as a terrorist group. There are two reasons for that. First, both belong to one ethnic group, the Pashtuns. Second, the TTP helped the Afghan Taliban by men and material in their fight against the foreign forces nullifying the war on terror for two decades.
That is, the Afghan Taliban owe the debt of help to the TTP. Hence, in the victory of the Afghan Taliban, the TTP sees its own triumph to have liberated Afghanistan from the clutches of the foreign invading forces. Liberating Afghanistan remained a shared goal achieved by the broader Taliban group residing on both sides of the Pak-Afghan international border.
The report does not overlook to identify the third significant militant group called the Daesh (ISIL), which is now submerged underneath the Afghan Taliban. The Daesh is not dead: the Daesh is almost dormant in the face of the activities of the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan and those of the TTP in the north-western parts of Pakistan. The strength of the TTP is around six thousand fighters making it the biggest militant group in Afghanistan after the Afghan Taliban themselves. Nevertheless, findings of the report lend credence to Pakistan’s suspicion that Kabul is reluctant to take action against the TTP working against Pakistan. Manpower that the TTP holds and the light weaponry the TTP has got its hands on, besides the patronage of the Afghan Taliban, make the triad functional enthusiastically against the interests and peace of Pakistan.
Recently, on July 11, Pakistan admitted that releasing the jailed TTP militants (over 100 in number) in November 2021 in a bid to offer a gesture of goodwill (to reciprocate the ceasefire announced by the TTP earlier the same month) was a mistake. The released militants got assimilated to the TTP and restarted attacking Pakistan.
The worrisome point is that on the one hand, Pakistan’s north-western border is vulnerable and volatile whereas on the other hand, Pakistan is reeling under the weight of politico-economic instability. In November 2022, the TTP ended its ceasefire with Pakistan.
Pakistan has recently ruled out any possibility for talks with the TTP. Pakistan is annoyed at Kabul for its offering sanctuaries to the TTP. Pakistan has been asking Kabul to act against militants operating from its soil. On Kabul’s not paying heed to its requests, Pakistan launched overnight air attacks inside Afghanistan in March this year. Suicide attacks on the Chinese engineers made Pakistan run out of patience. On June 22, through the Central Apex Committee on National Action Plan, Pakistan announced to launch Operation Azm-e Istahkam, as a national resolve to wipe out terrorism from the country.
The attack on the Bannu Cantonment is tantamount to a declaration of war against Pakistan. Apparently, the militants acted in revenge against Pakistan’s airstrikes on hideouts of the TTP in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s response to this impudent attempt of the TTP is yet to be seen.
The writer is an analyst on National Security and Counter-Terrorism. She tweets @TA_Ranjha and can be reached at [email protected]