Iran’s moment

After a tumultuous relationship with the west, one that has seen the Iranians face numerous hardships, things finally seem to be on the mend now, and that too, fast. The signing of the Vienna Agreement between the P5+1 countries and Iran signals the latter’s graduation to the big league in terms of international political clout as well as the end of crippling economic sanctions for the next several years.
The agreement entails that Iran will give up its nuclear ambitions for the time being and will make serious concessions in order to restore its economy and, with it, its place in the region. Iran has agreed not to produce highly enriched uranium while the agreement is in effect and also acceded to removing two-thirds of its currently installed centrifuges. Moreover, Iran has agreed to give up 98 percent of its existing uranium stockpile and to not build new heavy water reactors for the next 15 years. The deal also envisages a larger role for the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) inspections, where the inspectors will be given access to all locations in the nuclear fuel cycle and Iran will be liable to provide clarifications about past activity, if required.
By the looks of it, the six countries negotiating with Iran were able to severely clip Iran’s nuclear wings. So why would Iran agree to all this in the first place? The reasons for doing so are strategic and forward-looking. Firstly, signing the deal does not mean that Iran can never produce a nuclear weapon. In fact, Iran can still choose to go nuclear at a suitable time in the distant future when the trust between itself and the rest of the world has been established. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, the impetus behind signing this deal comes from a deep desire to restore the domestic economy in Iran. Decades of sanctions have ended up hurting the local populace and, as a result, moderate elements within the Iranian political setup were ushered into power through popular mandate so that some damage control could be initiated.
The moment is definitely Iran’s to seize but the rest of the world can also bask in the ensuing sunshine for some time. Iran will now no longer be seen as the nefarious and evil country it has been made out to be previously. As a matter of fact, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has already approved the agreement after review and if the US Congress does the same, it will only add to the legitimacy of Iran’s ascendancy.
However, all this might not have taken place had the US not pushed for a diplomatic solution after years of trying out policies that failed to recognise basic ground realities. In fact, such was the urgency behind agreeing on a deal that John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, had to stay on location and hammer things out even after he broke his leg in a cycling accident mid-negotiations. President Obama has rightly recognised that while this may not be the best deal, it is the most effective arrangement that will make sure that Iran does not get a nuke. The trust between the two nations is still at a woefully low level but there is hope that this agreement will open avenues for future cooperation.
For Iran, the agreement will directly translate into increased influence in the Middle East. Years of sanctions have failed to limit Iran’s significance in the Middle East, so one can only imagine what kind of authority Iran will enjoy in regional politics once the shackles are off. For years, Iran has been quietly asserting itself in the region but, in the future, Iran will be able to do so openly and legitimately as an important stakeholder.
As it stands, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria will present major avenues for Iranian interventions that might help to resolve the devastating conflicts that are taking place there. Shia populations in several Gulf countries have historically been sidelined, and sometimes even persecuted, but a more defiant Iran could now intervene to change this pattern as well. Additionally, Iran’s geographical location will also help it to play a larger role in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Not only that, we could see Iran negotiate a peace deal between the Palestinians and Israelis, and also contribute towards the eradication of terrorism by actively fighting against Islamic State (IS).
However, Iran’s pull will have to be qualified against the interests of the US and its allies in the form of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, as well as Israel. The agreement has not gone down well with the Saudis and their allies, and, as a result, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have started to up the ante in the ongoing war in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Moreover, Israel has been quick to criticise the US president for engaging with Iran, possibly out of fear that the US might decide to align itself more closely with Iran, a contingency that is anathema to the Israelis and Saudis alike. Sensing the hostility among its allies in the Middle East, the US is making efforts to soothe ruffled feathers but, over time, the US will either have to take a clear-cut, decisive stand keeping in mind its strategic interests, or else risk being involved in the murky web of Middle Eastern politics.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, Iran’s breakout moment could mean opportunities for fostering peaceful, neighbourly relations between the two countries. So far, border skirmishes in the Sistan-Balochistan region have been a bone of contention and Iran will additionally expect Pakistan to curb the flow of extremist elements into Iran. Furthermore, our eastern neighbours have been quicker than us to realise Iran’s importance, as is evident through the Chabahar trade route agreement between India and Iran.
Perhaps we too can start to build trust with the Iranians through trade, which can then lead to a stronger strategic relationship. Iran-Pakistan cooperation in trade would be beneficial to both countries, where Pakistan will be able to import oil and gas, and export food products such as wheat, rice and corn. But whatever form the increased bonhomie between Iran and Pakistan takes, this much is clear: Iran’s star is on the rise once more and, if anyone chooses to ignore it, they can only do so at their own peril.

The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations