Despite a deafening din in the western media over the alleged destruction and mayhem caused by the Russian forces in Ukraine, the UN estimates that 150 civilians have been killed in the first seven days of fighting. It means the Russian forces are moving ahead on five fronts with ultra care and without using indiscreet fire power. However, around 1 million people have reportedly fled from Ukraine war. President Zelensky claims to have killed 9000 Russian soldiers so far. It doesn’t sound true. Propaganda war is also raging hard.
At the beginning of the war, Putin had made some points crystal clear in his laser focused speech by telling that Russia’s linkage with Ukraine was much deeper than people think and see. ‘Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space. These are our comrades, those dearest to us – not only colleagues, friends and people who once served together, but also relatives, people bound by blood, by family ties. Axiomatically he has refrained from mass killing of the ‘relatives, people bound by blood’, so far. He dwelt on history at length to explain the motives behind Russia’s actions and ‘what we aim to achieve.’
The war has entered the eighth day. So far Russia is only trying to disable military capabilities and avoiding targeting civilians or taking over Kiev. Putin has not used its formidable air power or cruise/ballistic missiles which could easily make Kiev crumble. Russian forces have tactically slowed down their pace and do not seem in a hurry to run over Kiev. It has been noticed that major parts of the Russian military have not entered this war, ‘with many of the capabilities still unused’. Su-25s and combat helicopters were hardly seen in action. Nevertheless, there were some unconfirmed media reports of Su-34 bomber conducting strikes on Ukraine’s military targets.
It’s a guesstimate that the Russian forces might not exercise this restraint for long if the resistance and restrictions start biting back. War is a tool of foreign policy of the mighty who use it to protect and propel their interests. No doubt it is destructive therefore immoral. People are killed, injured and displaced in wars. Henry Kissinger had made a clear statement that morality in foreign relations helps achieve neither perfection nor security. It justifies Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and, may be, the use of destructive force at some point in time.
Meanwhile, ostensibly in a surprise move, but most probably in sync with Putin’s well-chalked out strategy, Ukrainian and Russian delegations have entered into talks sans preconditions. The first round of talks remained indecisive. The second round is underway. On the diplomatic front, Putin had telephonic conversation with the Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett. Prior to that he had talked with President of France, Macron, President of Armenia, PM of India, Narendra etc. PM of Pakistan was there when the attack was launched and Putin had three-hour discussion with him.
Russia’s determination and Europe’s reluctance will define the trajectory of this conflict. Russia is determined not to allow Ukraine become part of NATO on the same lines as the US resisted Cuba to be the ally of the erstwhile USSR. The US sanctions might not create dent in its resolve or cause collapse of the Russian economy, as the West expects. Europe is reluctant to bring full-fledged war and instability in its backyard. The US is also mostly watching from the fences, waiting for Russia to make blunders. China is cautiously coming closer to Russia. Ukraine is already cowering and on the defensive mode. The bridges are being blown up to stop the Russian forces from advancing on Kyiv, which is about 30 KMs away now.
In another development India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, total 10 members, abstained from the UNGA vote on the Russian invasion. A chaos has engulfed the world order and once the dust settles, a different geo-political scenario might emerge. Nevertheless, the odds seem to be in favour of Russia so far. The end result of war might come as a surprise to those underestimating Putin’s strategy.