No one could imagine the past four weeks to have happened in Afghanistan. The revival of the Taliban; the US and NATO scrambling for an exit; the Kabul Government in mental paralysis; the Afghan National Army in total disarray and the poor common Afghan in utter shock; unable to grasp what is to unfold. This is a sad story all over again. Panic is real and heavy. Anyone associated in any manner or form may it be enrolled, casual, listed or beneficiary with the provincial or central government fears for his life. Requests for visas and asylums are fast lining up at not just the US embassy, but even that of the EU, Turkey, the UAE and India. Those with foreign passports have mostly left. Those without one are now struggling to find a way out. Borders with Pakistan, Iran, and CARs are reportedly closed. Those travelling to Pakistan can only use the air route. The Indian variant Covid, which is now very prevalent in Kabul, has become another restriction to free travel. It would have otherwise been a matter of weeks before the Taliban could take hold of their Eastern exit points at Vesh Mandi, Ghulam Khan and Torkhum. The US is neither alarmed nor worried. It has tucked itself nicely into convenient packages that fly out regularly with their manpower and equipment. What they leave behind is nothing short of a nightmare. An abandoned Afghanistan has nowhere to run. Hamid Karzai–the man who set in motion all US-led plans in Afghanistan as well as establishing a deep anti-Pakistan mindset in the early government–is believed to have given a long list of his immediate family and others to the Turkish Embassy for asylum or temporary relocation to Turkey. There is a deathly silence and no response as of yet. Where will others go? The UAE? India? Lebanon? There are many worried men in Afghanistan as no one thought that the change could be so swift. Brave words of resilience spoken by Ahmed Masoud, Dostum, Ustad Atta, Ashraf Ghani and Amrullah Saleh will be tested.
The Taliban seem to be following a set pattern, or a methodology in tackling the surrendering of government troops and officials. They know all about the officials of a particular district they intend to tackle and invite them to join the Taliban or surrender. Practically, everyone prefers to not fight. The Taliban then allow them to leave with a warning that if found to be fighting against them, they would be killed. Surrendering officials and troops are even given 5000 Afghanis as goodwill and sent. Pictures of the Taliban hugging their adversaries is indeed a rare sight. News from some districts of the exuberance of Taliban occupation claims that the local warlords were brutal in enforcing their rule. No young girl or boy was safe. Rape, kidnapping and wanton killings were encouraged to instil fear in the population. The extraordinary welcome is thus understood.
Financial liquidity was the order of the day for the pandemic but in doing so excessively, central banks have perhaps sown the seed of another asset collapse.
Statements from the Taliban spokesman and other information that is trickling in suggests the following;
1.The Taliban will avoid bloodshed. They will pardon, and forgive all those who denounce their will to fight the Taliban.
2. They will not spare all those warlords that have committed crimes against humanity and killed at random simply to justify their authority. All those who have violated Haquq-ul-Abad ( disregarding the rights of fellow Muslims) will be held accountable.
3. Taliban will invite all ethnicities to join them to build a new Afghanistan. Those who join are expected to show their commitment and not demand a position of authority.
4. Afghanistan will not be used as a sanctuary by non-Afghans that use Afghan soil against its neighbours. They are clear that Daesh, the TTP and other groups are no longer welcome. They will be told to leave Afghanistan or face the Taliban wrath.
5. Efforts by countries to push the Taliban for agreeing to talk about an inclusive government, a shared government, democracy and elections are just that – empty talks. The Taliban will ensure that Shariah will be supreme and followed literally.
6. They intend to have good relations with all their neighbours.
The Taliban are date conscious, all of a sudden. Biden’s plan to move his troops by the end of August is no surprise. The speed at which the US and NATO are extricating is again interesting. The strange revelation by Biden that the US never planned for any nation-building in Afghanistan is astonishing. Why then all the fuss over democracy, building institutions, revamping of fiscal and commercial policies, reorganising the Afghan Intelligence and the Military on American/NATO lines and even deployment of the reconstruction task force in each of its US Command Zones?
The push for Kabul will be after these dates, it seems. There appears a major difference from the old Taliban movement. They have a Taliban presence in nearly all provinces and the majority of the districts, which encompasses all ethnicities. The Haqqanis and the Kandahari Taliban are still united. Irritants, if any, are kept under the cloak. This facade is not expected to last long as it will surface once Kabul gets captured.
Pakistan must closely follow events along its western border. The Taliban will take over all posts and crossing sites in time. Before that happens, TTP and Baluchi non-state actors are likely to carry out operations in Balochistan and KPK. Border cooperation will be the need of the hour. There is no need to rush to hug the Taliban. Let it wait till they prove worthy of it.
When Kabul fell on September 27, 1996, the Taliban, fresh from their victories, destroyed many artefacts in the Kabul Museum as well as the Buddha statues of Bamiyan. Most importantly, the Bactrian Hoard or Bactrian Gold, which was unearthed in Northern Afghanistan and kept hidden from the Taliban in the secret vaults of the Arg, survived in its entirety. It would be wise to possibly prepare contingencies for its protection again.
The writer is freelance columnist