Diseases have had an incredibly significant role in shaping our history. When Europeans invaded the Incas and Aztecs in sixteenth century smallpox, measles were as much a potent weapon (in some cases even more) as their horses and relatively advanced technology against the settlers of the New World. Yersina Pestis, the Plague (the name Black Death aptly describing the associated morbidity) caused the rise and fall of many empires. It is both strange and revealing to know how the forces of nature shape our world.
This century has seen its share of endemics as well, Ebola, Zika, Dengue, Yellow Fever among many others. 2020 seems to add another to the list as we seem to to be on the cusp of another outbreak that of Coronavirus. What makes it more dangerous is the fact that the country of origin is the most populous in the world i.e. China!
Coronavirus has similarities to SARS (Sever Acute Respiratory Syndrome) that in 2002 killed almost 650 people in Hong Kong and mainland China. The United Nations health agency has said that this a “never-before-seen” strain of this virus that has started to spread throughout China from Wuhan, where it originated from. According to different experts and WHO animals have been identified as the major source of transmission. It contagious and can be spread through sneezes or touching contaminated objects.
Bourses throughout China have suffered losses as cases of at least nine people dead and 440 infected surfaced. Stock market in US also shed some gains, with DOW down more than 100 points, after CDC (Center for Disease Control) confirmed the first case of Coronavirus in US.
The first and foremost step is Anticipation that assumes albeit the emergence of a disease cannot be predicted we can still highlight the most likely to spread and in this particular stage we already know it. We should already be making plans to contain it
The Chinese have been touring the whole world recently with number of trips made by Chinese residents increased from 10.5 million in 2000 to 150 million in 2018 – an increase of 1,326 percent! In the last decade or so China has also become one of the leading global financial and cultural centers. Simply put this means that the chances of coronavirus spreading around the globe are, unfortunate, very high. Now, for a country that didn’t even have enough vaccinations to treat a dog bite – we saw that soul-shaking tragic scene where a boy died in his mother’s arms – and shares a border with China, it is, and should be, a matter of grave concern. However, unfortunately, I haven’t seen any pro-active measures being taken by our government when and if (heaven forfends) it appears in Pakistan. We have growing ties with the country and many Pakistanis now travel to and from China. This holds especially true for business class who has now economic concerns in China. Around 45,000 plus Chinese live in Pakistan mostly working or engaged in activities related to CPEC.
Given our present health infrastructure and ability to fight such medical outbreaks it is highly important for the government authorities to be pro-active and make necessary measures and preparations against Coronavirus.
WHO’s handbook, Managing Epidemics, has defined an approach to fight 21st century diseases. The first and foremost step is Anticipation that assumes albeit the emergence of a disease cannot be predicted we can still highlight the most likely to spread and in this particular stage we already know it. We should already be making plans to contain it. The next logical step is Early Detection – we should start screening people coming from China at the airport terminals. There should be a team of doctors that devise some necessary tests/measures that might help in early identification of coronavirus. If any case is detected then the process of containment should begin and it will, evidently, require pre-training of doctors and other medical staff. The other two steps, control, mitigation and elimination will involve procuring the required medicines, vaccinations (if there is any) and or other necessary equipment.
Further; the use of designated physical spaces (Coordinating Responders), identifying risk groups and labs for checkup (Health Information), Curbing misinformation vis a vis the disease (Communicating Risk), and finally to identify the interventions to control the disease along with gauging effect of transmission and mortality (Health Interventions) – all this forms what are called the Reform Tips (C, HI, C, HI). The government needs to act; it would be highly irresponsible for us to wait for the first case to be identified with the said disease here in Pakistan.
The writer is an economic and geopolitical analyst