If you want to know how the economy is doing, do not bother listening to the convoluted arguments on television. Instead, call your friends or relatives living abroad. Ask them if they would like to invest their savings in Pakistan or keep their money in the West. Their response, in words and deeds, will answer your question.
The Pakistani diaspora is uniquely well placed on account of personal affiliation and international exposure to can gauge the political and economic situation. When they feel confident about the prospects of an investment, they can flood us with foreign exchange. Their remittances nourish businesses, create new jobs and expand the economy. If you can persuade them to trust a government in Pakistan, you can solve the country’s short-term liquidity problem as well as some of its medium-term issues. Of course, long-term concerns require much more. But once you have some breathing space, you can possibly work on the more complicated matters as well.
Prime Minister Imran Khan and his team understand that. They are aware that expatriates can turn the economy around rather quickly. That is why the government has done its best to woo them. As soon as he took power last year, the prime minister asked them to send $1,000 per person to build a dam and save the future generations by securing the water resources. A few months later, he introduced the Pakistan Banao certificates – government issued bonds – to encourage them to invest in US dollars and earn profits in the same currency rather than the rupee whic continues to depreciate.
If there was one politician in Pakistan, the prime minister realized, who could convince them, it was him. They had supported him thoughout during his career in philanthropy and an opposition leader, sometimes raising seemingly impossible amounts of funds. They had seen him build hospitals and universities. When he asked for transparency in government his voice resonated with theirs. He must have assumed that it would not be as difficult for him to convince them than it had been for his predecesssors. He would talk to them and reassure that their hard-earned money would be safe. The dollar blizzard wold transform the economy in no time.
If you want to know how the economy is doing, do not bother listening to the convoluted arguments on television. Instead, call your friends or relatives living abroad. Ask them if they would like to invest their savings in Pakistan or keep their money in the West. Their response, in words and deeds, will answer your question
To his dismay, the response was not what he had expected. He received less than $2 million for the dam project. The bond did not catch the attention of the investors either, attracting so small an amount that it might fail even to cover the operating cost of the scheme.
Why did this come to pass? How could the very people who had always heeded his call, some of whom had donated even the family silver (and gold) when he asked for it, ignore his plea just when he could bring about real change, the change they wished for? Had not so many Pakistanis living abroad vehemently supported him in the elections?
The answer is not easy or simple. However, if I have to pick one reason, I would point to his team selection. The people he has surrounded himself with are either incompetent, enjoy a dubious reputation or are accused of the same things as his predecessors. Asad Umer, the so-called financial wizard, upon whose performance the party depended heavily, has turned out to be a disaster, to say the least.
Look at the administration provided by Usman Buzdar, his pick for Punjab chief minister. You see tragedy, chaos and confusion. It feels even worse when you compare it to the decade long tenure of Shahbaz Sharif. There is palpable unease and dissatisfaction in almost all government departments. Then there is an endless list of miserable minions and non-serious characters at every level of the government. Even the president is more willing to talk about the benefits of brushing teeth twice a day on national television than the financial struggle the country faces.
Can Imran Khan still change the direction the country is headed in? If he wants to, yes. But for this he will have to take bold decisions. He will have to replace many of his cabinet colleagues with serious professionals and start a process of ruthless yet lawful accountability starting with his own party. It can be extended later to his rivals, not the other way around. The expatriates will start contributing when they see even-handed justice. Otherwise, the option to keep their money in the West suits them fine.
The writer is a US-based freelance columnist