Romanians started voting on Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that may give hard-right politician George Simion a chance of winning, with voters focused on high living costs and the country’s support for Ukraine. Opinion surveys show leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, 56, leader of Romania’s largest party, the Social Democrats, will make it into the run-off vote on Dec 8, with Simion, 38, of the Alliance for Uniting Romanians the likely runner-up. About 3.7 million Romanians, or 20.7% of registered voters in the European Union and NATO state, had cast their ballots across the country by 1045 GMT, data showed. Voting ends at 1900 GMT with exit polls to follow immediately. Voting by Romanians abroad, who can influence the result and where the hard right leader is popular, began on Friday. Analysts expect Ciolacu to win the second round against Simion, appealing to moderates and touting his experience running Romania during a war next door. But the prospect of a Ciolacu-Simion run-off vote could mobilise centre-right voters in favour of Elena Lasconi, leader of opposition Save Romania Union, ranked third in opinion surveys, analysts said. Simion has cast the election as a choice between an entrenched political class beholden to foreign interests in Brussels and himself, an outsider who will defend Romania’s economy and sovereignty. He opposes military aid to Ukraine and supports a peace plan as envisioned by US President-elect Donald Trump, whom he admires, and would support a government that emulates that of Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. “We want peace, the war must end so we stop being afraid,” 76-year-old Valentin Ion said after voting in Bucharest. “Politicians must be more understanding and give money to the needy.” Romania has the EU’s largest share of people at risk of poverty. Ciolacu’s coalition government of his Social Democrats (PSD) and centre-right Liberals has raised the minimum wage and increased pensions twice this year, but high budget spending has swollen deficits and kept inflation high. “I am taking my parents and my children to go vote for PSD, it is the best party, Marcel Ciolacu gave us so much,” said Vasile Popa, 46. Since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, Romania has enabled the export of millions of tons of grain through its Black Sea port of Constanta and provided military aid, including the donation of a Patriot air defence battery. “The outcome is still very difficult to predict due to the high concentration of candidates and the splitting of the centre-right vote,” said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babes-Bolyai University. Most candidates, he said, have campaigned on conservative messages such as protecting family values. “Mainstream party candidates have a very catch-all message, on the one hand the nation, the army, religion and so on. On the other hand, we see a commitment to Europe, although it is seen more as a revenue source than an inspiration for values.” Outgoing two-term president Klaus Iohannis, 65, had cemented Romania’s strong pro-Western stance but was accused of not doing enough to fight corruption. Romania’s president, limited to two five-year terms, has a semi-executive role which includes heading the armed forces.