Three years ago in an article published in the local news, the author predicted that the door of dialogue between Pakistan and India would not open as long as Narendra Modi remained Indian Prime Minster. This premonition was not based on some divine hunch but evolved from a careful study of the political jigsaw puzzle built by Modi to ensure his rise from a regional leader to the Prime Minister of India and sustain his second term.
An Indian political analyst, Prof C S R Murthy at the same time around had also felt that Modi would not like to resume dialogue with Pakistan unless some concrete progress is shown in terms of the trial of terrorists or terms of the control over infiltrations. “I don’t see any chance of the resumption of talks which Pakistan wants. We must not forget that since childhood, Modi has belonged to the secretive cadre of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which believes that all Indians must place the nation above all other considerations including religion. This explains why the country’s 177 million Muslims fear Modi and why many other Indians regard him as an authoritarian ideology or worse. After all, it was his failure as Chief Minister to step in to quell religious rioting in his home state of Gujarat in 2002 that cost some 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, their lives.”
A cursory glance at his election track would reveal that he kept Pakistan bashing as the main ploy to win Hindu votes in its first two general elections. In 2014, Modi issued a warning over China’s potential military action along the border with India. He focused on “illegal immigration” from Bangladesh, particularly during the later part of his campaign in the Eastern States, including Assam and West Bengal, and asserted that Hindus outside the country would be able to seek asylum in India if they required it. He did not allow Muslims to claim Indian nationality without s documentary proof. The BJP campaign fuelled concern among the Hindu majority that a victory for the opposition would lead to Muslim domination and control of economic assets at the cost of Hindus.
From promising to pursue a “muscular policy” against Pakistan (2014) to the “false flag operation” in Pulwama and its mantra “Ghar me ghus ke marain ga” (we will hit you inside your home) throughout its election campaign in 2019, the Indian government brought the two countries almost to the brink of a full-scale war. The BJP’s tactics did not change in the 2024 elections either, as it again associated its political rivals with Pakistan and warned the public against voting for its political opponents – the INDIA alliance, particularly the Indian National Congress. Modi’s dehumanizing anti-Muslim language on the campaign trail was more direct than that of his past speeches. The brazen continuation of such anti-Muslim rhetoric is what has differentiated the 2024 campaign from the two previous elections that Modi won. Modi’s campaign narrative made it clear that under his dispensation, Muslims would be politically disempowered, economically marginalised, and deprived of their constitutional rights. Some Hindutva leaders openly called for the extermination of Muslims. Only last week, one BJP leader vowed to kill 10000 Muslims for one severed cow head. It is to be given serious thought to how and with what purpose. Is the BJP determined to further widen the gulf between the people of the two countries?
Historically, for the past ten years, Prime Minister Modi has maintained an acrimonious and aggressive posture vis-a-vis Pakistan and in the process engendered such negativity in the minds of the Indian public that it would be near impossible even for Modi himself to do a course correction and create space for positive engagement. The BJP’s refusal to engage with Pakistan in a meaningful and sustained dialogue on the core dispute of Jammu and Kashmir which has bedeviled the relationship all along, is another point for disappointment. As has been mentioned above, the BJP only wishes to engage with Pakistan on its terms, while seeking to side-track issues that are a matter of serious concern and interest to Pakistan. This is also evident from the latest statement by Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar where he said that India would want to seek a solution to the issue of so-called “cross border terrorism,” conveniently glossing over India’s state-sponsored terrorism against Pakistan and its extra-judicial and extra-territorial assassinations in Pakistan. Mr Modi, himself, in his interview with Republic TV, took visible pride in claiming that he has put a “lock” on the “Pakistan box.”
With such an entrenched negative mindset and persistence in a belligerent posture towards Pakistan on India’s part, the prospects of improved bilateral relations. Jaishankar has already set the rules of engagement with Pakistan for Modi 3.0 and the future of India-Pakistan Relations appear grim now. Until the BJP-ruled India re-thinks its Pakistan policy, the prospects of any forward movement in the relationship would remain limited, if not illusive. Modi’s victory, even a diluted one, is certainly not a good omen for Pakistan. It’s not surprising that the Indian prime minister had upped the ante against Pakistan on the election trail. Hindu nationalists got another opportunity to increase pressure on Pakistan. Now, a third Modi term can promise disastrous consequences not only for the unity of India but also for Pakistan and the rest of the world.
There are real risks that the Modi government may destroy India’s secular identity and democracy. In return, he may not be remembered as an architect of new India but as a builder of chaos and regional disorder. It is a pity that he advised President Putin to end the Ukraine war through dialogue and diplomacy during his first trip to Moscow after the election but stridently rejected the same in the case of his disputes with Pakistan.
The writer is a former ambassador and associated with the University of Sargodha. He can be contacted at [email protected].