China’s inexorable rise continues. It is no more just a factory for the world but a muscular, aggressive power on the world stage, well on its way to super powerdom. America is unenviably retreating from its global leadership role as a whimsical president losing the grip on the world order his country built. At home he’s at war with his own house. As the White House ponders its response to the attack on Tower 22, the U.S. military outpost in Jordan, the news from the Middle East could hardly be worse. From Gaza to the Red Sea and from Jordan to Iraq, a stream of unprovoked attacks by Iran and its proxies are driving President Biden into the greatest crisis of his presidency in final year. This isn’t what the president or his top aides expected or hoped.
The ongoing war in Ukraine, meanwhile, shows little sign of resolution, with Republicans souring on Biden’s requests for further military assistance. A looming government shutdown threatens critical programs. Republicans ousted their speaker, producing historic chaos in the House.
With Vladimir Putin as President, Russia is constantly prowling and growling on Eurasian belt and further expanding its ambit. The European Union is splintering. Since Brexit and the migration crisis, many countries in the European Union have seen the rise of a new extreme kind of nationalism, shaking the foundations of the most progressive union of nations in recent history. It is, in fact, a slap in the face of history. Turning the clock back. The Middle East remains on fire. It is plagued by ongoing Palestine-Israel conflict, which has turned into humanitarian crises with no real end in sight. It remains the bloody playground of the super powers. The Ukraine war continues as the west-backed coalition against Russia enters its second year. It is fighting a war it cannot win or afford to lose.
Meanwhile, military-industrial brinkmanship is in full swing due to armed crises. Leaders are behaving as boys do with toys but with really dangerous ones. As if bent on its destruction, humanity is once again ignoring the warning signs of climate change. The World it seems cannot save the Earth. The world, in fact, has become an extremely dangerous place.
These political, humanitarian, & military conflicts trigger various conundrums we have to deal with in the years to come and how we deal with them will define the 21st century. The first conundrum is the most dangerous one that is the return of nationalism in a super connected globalized world. The forces of protectionism are rising. Country after country is throwing up barriers to trade, movement of people and even ideas. The forces that separate us are becoming stronger than those that unite us.
The second conundrum is the threat to democracy. Democracy is the cradle of freedoms but these freedoms are being diminished by political polarization, fundamentalism, majoritarianism and general intolerance. It’s the rise of illiberal democracies. A kind of lumpenised democracy. Look at what’s happening in our own country. Political parties are contained without being allowed to conduct election campaign freely. People are brutally maltreated for supporting the wrong kind of political party or for opposing the new king’s party. Political discourse is being re-written by legal interpreters to demean common masses to discourage them from freely supporting major political party with sixty percent approval rating as apex court recent judgment on snatching election symbol from PTI has further raised apprehensions of horse trading after general elections.
Fake news is a virus that has infected the digital ecosystem.
Candidates and their supporters are being assaulted by militants and causing hindrance to their political campaign and the bureaucracy seems to exist to serve itself and not the people. When all this happens you know democracy is in peril. And if democracy is in peril, the nation is in peril as Pakistan can be governed only as a democracy.
The third conundrum is that despite prosperity claims the great divide persists. While countries have become more prosperous with economic growth spurred by globalization and innovation, the rich have got richer and the poor poorer. Inequalities have grown across the world and Pakistan and other south Asian states are countries where inequality is the highest. The top one per cent owns more than sixty per cent of the wealth and also captures 70 per cent of new wealth created.
With widespread farmer distress and pervasive joblessness, this is a time bomb ticking in our backyard. And the alienated youth is enraged further as they see their will and vote to elect their representatives to give roadmap for financial prosperity (if any) in parliamentary system is totally undermined. Thus, future course of action will be dominated by the overt challenge that is to have equity with growth while not punishing the wealth creators.
Social media too is a double edged sword. It can be used for evil or good. It gives everyone the freedom to express an opinion but that freedom is threatened as organizations use troll armies to denigrate those who disagree with them. But it also allows for greater social activism exposing those who wear the cloak of civility for the barbarians they actually are like MeToo, TimesUp movements etc. and most recently Israel’s barbarity against Palestinian people which triggered widespread boycott and protests across both hemispheres.
The other irony is that, with Google, we live in a time when the world’s knowledge is at our fingertips and the truth is easily verifiable. But the truth is constantly on trial. Fake news is a virus that has infected the digital ecosystem. And there is no cure in sight. Regulating these tech giants will be a big challenge in the years to come.
Amid all these aforementioned paradoxes, record-breaking 40-plus countries, from Russia to South Africa, India to the US, representing more than 40% of the world’s population and an outsized chunk of global GDP, are due to hold national elections in 2024. The outcomes, taken separately and together, will help determine who controls and directs the 21st century world.
Casting lots in this multinational, multiparty democratic Super Bowl are some of the most powerful and wealthiest states (the US, India, the UK), some of the weakest (South Sudan, Pakistan), and most stressed (Russia, Iran). Some elections will be open, free and fair, many less so. Some will not be free at all. Paradoxically, this unprecedented vote-fest comes at a moment when the world economy is lumbering from one shock to another as two brutal wars, stubborn inflation and high borrowing costs hold back the post-pandemic recovery.
Started with Taiwan in January and running through the US presidential election in November, there is a busy line-up even in chaotic political times. Thus, 2024 is set to become the most significant election year in history. India, United States, Russia, United Kingdom, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mexico, South Africa are among the key players in the 40 nation election.
To Be Continued
The writer works at a public policy think tank. He can be reached at [email protected]