In response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, petrol prices in Pakistan are expected to increase by approximately Rs2.43 per litre, while diesel prices are set to drop by Rs5.65. These changes are in line with the shifts in global oil prices, which have prompted adjustments in the local fuel market. Global conflict drives up oil prices The surge in global oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has led to a slight upward revision in Pakistan’s petrol prices. Recent price estimates, effective until October 26, 2023, reveal an average international petroleum price of $90.72 per barrel. This marks a notable increase compared to the previous fortnight’s weighted average price of $87.74 per barrel. As a result, the ex-refinery cost for petrol is projected to be around Rs204.76 per litre, compared to the previous fortnight’s price of Rs202.33 per litre. Conversely, diesel prices are anticipated to witness a downward revision of approximately Rs5.65 per litre, reflecting the decline in international diesel prices. Globally, diesel prices have fallen to $112.53 per barrel, down from the previous fortnight’s price of $114.65 per barrel. Accordingly, the ex-refinery cost of diesel is set at Rs225.74 per litre, compared to the prior rate of Rs231.38 per litre. It is worth noting that there are still around three trading sessions remaining before the next pricing update, making it clear that the future trajectory of fuel prices will largely depend on global market dynamics and the exchange rate. The government is expected to announce the next fortnightly update on October 31, 2023, providing further insight into how Pakistan’s fuel prices will continue to evolve in response to international developments. International oil benchmarks also reflect this trend, showing an average price of $90.25 per barrel as compared to the previous fortnight’s weighted average price of $87.35 per barrel.