Technological development has transformed the world into a well-connected global village that has travelled much beyond the primitive management of interstate relations. We are, today, working in a world where, as described by Richard Haas, “very little stays local; just about anyone and anything, from tourists, terrorists, and refugees to email, diseases, dollars, and greenhouse gases, can reach almost anywhere. The result is that what goes on inside a country can no longer be considered concerns of that country alone.”
Whilst today’s world is full of opportunities for peace and security, trade and economic connectivity, technical and technological cooperation, aid and assistance for poverty alleviation and promotion of education, it is simultaneously the “world of terrorism; of drugs, arms and human trafficking; of climate change and declining biodiversity; of water wars and food insecurity; of corruption, money laundering and tax evasion; of pandemic diseases carried by air, sea, and land” as aptly described by another American scholar, Ann Marry Slaughter.
Notwithstanding the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the dreaded Cold War, the world remained in flux witnessing monumental changes, conflicts and confrontations. The unipolarity, given the authoritarian nature of the concept, played a contributory role in exasperating political, economic, strategic and territorial disputes that underlined the interstate relations in many parts of the world. The flashpoints in Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the Greater Asia, particularly in the South China Sea, Indo-China and Pacific, Korean Peninsula, Bosnia, and Kosovo posed a serious threat to international peace.
Parallel to the above apprehensive conditions, the World Trade Organization created golden opportunities for globalization spurring new trends in global trade and economic exchanges. Many countries from the Global South were not prepared to address the intricate challenges of globalization nor had their economies the required capacity to absorb the shocks of the economic connectivity unleashed by the WTO. Notwithstanding claims for global cooperation, the industrialized countries have since remained embedded in protectionism, arbitrary imposition of tariffs, quotas, and restrictions on the inflow of goods from the developing countries. The US-led Western block has also resorted to frequent use of economic sanctions on countries – protective of their right to sovereign decision-making.
The US-led Western block has resorted to frequent use of economic sanctions on countries.
The post-World War II political and economic institutions established under the UNO or the Bretton Wood system to regulate interstate relations and ensure international peace and security conflict resolution and equitable economic exchanges remained effective tools in the hands of the Western states to secure their hegemony over the Global South. This is particularly so for the UN Security Council, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The duplicity of these countries has been evidenced more than once during the trajectory of the past seven decades.
In this uneven world, the rise of China as an economic superpower, alarming the USA and triggering its policy of ‘China containment’ in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, added a new chapter in the interstate rivalry, confrontation and competition and speeded up endeavours for multi-polarity or multilateralism to counter the hegemony of the US in the global power equation. The world remains in the throes of change. The Multi-polarity is in the offing. Though formally undeclared, regional political, economic and strategic groupings have already taken strong roots. China has been playing a vital role in these groupings. The process of change seems irreversible.
We are living in this Hobbesian world riven by rivalry, political and strategic conflicts and economic competition. We have to find a foothold to promote our national interest in the fast-changing geo-political and strategic and geo-economic dynamics. Despite the significance of the geo-political and strategic dynamics, geo-economics is making a greater contribution in reshaping interstate relations and leading to regional realignments to enhance mutually advantageous economic connectivity. In the competing geo-economics, political stability, consistent and predictable economic policies, the composition of the population, market-based exchange rates, incentives for foreign investments, law and order situation, rule of law and credible judicial intervention remain significant factors.
Pakistan is a member of many important economic forums and regional groupings. However, its role has remained peripheral for several factors. The major or medium economies of the world that have progressed well within the global competing geo-economics have heavily invested in education, promotion of technology, health and development of human resources and followed a constitutional order defining the roles of the state institutions including executive, legislative, judiciary and ensuring non-partisan constitutional bodies, independent judiciary and honest civil service. Historically, the track record of Pakistan has been more than unsatisfactory in showcasing a credible political system.
We have not shown the will to overcome the chronically gnawing gap between our revenues and expenditures. This gap has kept widening forcing us to resort to excessive borrowing and bailouts. Our external debt has reached the alarming figure of over 70 per cent of the GDP. The chronic fiscal deficits have confronted the country with a perpetual balance of payment problems. ‘This crisis, today, has to be addressed in an adverse global environment where financial market conditions remain tight. All the economic trends for the country are negative and unlikely to be reversed any time soon – says Maliha Lodhi.
We also lag far behind in the development of human resources. The UNDP’s Global Human Development Report of 2022 ranks Pakistan’s Human Development at 161 out of 192 countries with no progress recorded from 2019 to 2023. The World Bank report places Pakistan in the list of sub-Saharan African countries in the Human Capital Index being the lowest in Asia at 0.41. Unfortunately, the education deficit occupies the lowest place in the ruling elite’s priorities. It is a shame that Pakistan has 20 million children in school between the age group of 5-16 years. This makes the world’s second-highest number of Children after Nigeria. This means 44 per cent of our children do not go to school. It is alarming and shameful – to say the least.
(To be continued)
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books