Mian Nawaz Sharif is clearly in a terminal state of bother. In his latest public meeting, he declared that the time had come to use ‘kicks rather than words’. Gone is any pretext at being the ‘friendly opposition’. The object of his ire as always is the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and its government of the day. I am actually starting to feel a bit sorry for the Sharif brothers. The elder Sharif is seeing his chance of ever being prime minister again slip away and the relatively younger Sharif is facing a time when he will no longer be the chief minister of Punjab. So, as is their wont, the Sharif brothers want to go on a ‘long march’. Most of us associate long marches with the one led by Chairman Mao. The major difference besides that of political consequence between the Chinese long march and the one contemplated by the Sharif brothers is that the Sharif’s planned ‘march’ will be a lot less ‘long’ and not actually be a ‘foot march’ but one carried out in armoured, air-conditioned SUVs. Mao would be amused!
The one thing that I have thought much about over the last few months is why the Sharif brothers are so desperate for ‘early elections’. As a resident of Lahore, I can state categorically that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is not ready for any elections in Punjab. PML-N will not go for new elections until such time that all roads in Lahore that are dug up and being redone are finally fixed. Those, as the former ‘strongman’ of Pakistan used to say, are the ‘ground realities’. So then why all this talk of elections at this time? Simply put, what the Sharifs want desperately is to have new elections for the National Assembly (NA) while they are still in power in Punjab. This will give them a chance to garner more seats in the NA from Punjab than they did the last time, perhaps even give them a plurality and a chance to lead a new government in the centre. And if that happens, they can then use that position to win in Punjab!
As far as Imran Khan is concerned, he has clearly figured out what the Sharifs want and as such has said that he will support the PML-N movement against the PPP government only if the PML-N first resigns from the assemblies — yes, assemblies in the plural, meaning of course that the PML-N must also resign from the Punjab assembly. Rather than an anti-PPP movement, Khan and the PML-N therefore might just end up with competing rallies to demonstrate their individual strength. Here I must also pontificate a bit on the Imran Khan (IK) ‘phenomenon’. Has IK peaked? Perhaps yes and then perhaps not, but unless his ‘tsunami’ really gets going, I do not see his party getting enough seats in the NA to be able to form a government. At this time, IK seems at best capable of playing a ‘spoilers’ role and dragging down the PML-N. But then the elections are more than a few months away and we still don’t know if the ‘angels’ are going to vote and who they might decide to vote for.
Now to the hot topic of the day and the reason for the above mentioned conniptions, the contempt of court ruling against Prime Minister (PM) Gilani. Much has been written and said about the legal, political and moral consequences of this decision and about the reasons for the PM’s obduracy in the matter of the ‘letter’. Here I would like to remind my readers that a few weeks ago, I had suggested that the reason why our Chief Justice (CJ) fought back successfully against General Musharraf was simply because he had a bigger and bushier moustache than the general. At this time, the CJ has to deal with a PM who has an almost identical moustache, so as far as I am concerned what we are seeing is a moustache clash. The PM will not give in though time is against him. He will therefore give the CJ as much ‘agitation’ as he can for as long as he can and then withdraw to the pavilion, his innings formally declared over.
Some historical perspective is needed. In the history of Pakistan, nobody has ever been elected prime minister in a general election who was sixty years or older. As such, in my opinion, it is clearly time for my generation of aging leaders with their augmented and dyed hair, and their vain attempts at trying to look a decade or so younger than they actually are to gracefully walk away and let younger people take over. This includes the Sharif brothers, Imran Khan and PM Gilani; the latter two will hit 60 this year and the other two are already beyond the age of ‘superannuation’. The youngest among the entire bunch is, of course, President Zardari who will not hit this milestone for another few years but then he is not in the running for PM anyway. Chaudhry Nisar Khan, the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly deserves honourable mention. He is the only senior politician whose political rhetoric or hairstyle has not changed one bit during the last four years. He definitely deserved kudos for consistency if nothing else.
So, in my opinion, if we really and truly want to solve the problems confronting Pakistan, we should let a new generation of leaders take over and then see what they can accomplish. Let us bring into the fray the likes of Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, Maryam Nawaz Sharif, Hamza Shahbaz Sharif, Moonis Elahi and others in that general age group. Frankly, they cannot do any worse than their parents did and might actually do a better job!
However one caveat, please no beards — that will make political prognostication much more difficult for me.
The writer has practised and taught medicine in the US and in Pakistan. He can be reached at [email protected]