Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) once again dominated the political ground by winning October by-elections. Pakistan’s political ground is giving a different picture of the power game this time. The confrontational approach by PTI remains the main factor for keeping them determined toward their goal. The question arises here: would they be able to succeed in the demand for Early Elections? So far, the country is facing a political, economic, and humanitarian crisis, and PML-N is trying to handle the existing situation but does not seem to be in their hands even after changing of Finance Minister. Furthermore, has PML-N lost its firm footing on political grounds? The recent announcement of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) making Imran Khan ineligible to contest election for the next five years under the “Tosha Khana Case,” is another step to stop the popularity of the most popular leader of Pakistan at a moment. In this regard, the PTI won 15 out of 20 seats in July and eight out of 11 seats in October by-elections, which have already shown a great triumph for the PTI by grabbing majority seats by crossing upheavals on the political ground. From these seats, Imran Khan, being a solo candidate, contested seven seats and won six with a good and reasonable margin.
The current situation and the absence of PML-N main leaders from the nearest dates of the October by-election ground have shown a different picture altogether. The disqualification comes under legal jurisdiction now. Per legal experts, the ECP cannot disqualify a candidate on its decision where he is showing all his contributions in payment of having the gifts. In this regard, the candidate has a right to challenge the decision and can move toward High Court and then to Supreme Court. Again, the decision lies in the honourable courts, as seen in the July by-elections. The decisions are based on trials and arguments, and it will take a few months at least. Seems that the government is determined to avail of its said period, and they will not conduct the General Election before 2023 November, as stated by a spokesperson.
There is a need for a new mandate, as the current government of PML-N has lost most of its political capital in Punjab.
By looking at the political developments, another obstacle can be seen. One can predict a tit-for-tat response from the PTI in the form of Long March. The recent scenario suggests accepting the early election demand of PTI. The country seems to be standing on the same ground as before the Vote of No-Confidence. Just removing elected government before the expiration of tenure in the last year does not seem to be a good decision that has led to chaos and instability in the country.
Smooth and constitutional moves could save the country from the emerging current crisis. Grave problems, one after another, have affected the country at the expense of individuals’ power games. Thus, the PTI’s demand seems to be the most viable solution in the favour of the country as well as individual satisfaction. So, why the delay? An aggressive framework and negotiations should be made for implementation as we have seen in the UK. Elizabeth Truss, the Prime Minister appointed in September 2022, has resigned from the post after accepting the weak deliverance of her mandate of cutting taxes and boosting economic growth given by the Conservative Party. That’s a sportsman’s spirit and solution to a problem.
The current political landscape is giving the picture of a fractured coalition framework. It is observed that there is a need for a new mandate, as the current government of PML-N has lost most of its political capital in Punjab, leading to a further weakening of the roots. PML-N had always had a strong grip on Punjab, but the recent elections’ results have given observers a different picture.
In October by-elections, PTI had 49 per cent votes, while PDM achieved 43 per cent, and eight per cent went to other political parties according to ECP. From the results, Imran Khan has emerged as a popular leader, defeating the PDM, comprising of 14 main political parties in Pakistan. The rising cost of living and the inability to control the economic imbalance by the coalition government, under the leadership of PML-N’s PM, are the main contextual factors that led to changed voter behaviour. Secondly, the to-and-fro movement from Pakistan to London for decision-making shows a losing plot.
With the emerging political developments, the pressure can be seen on the ruling government as well as on the opposition. The October election results show a storm and spell out the need for mediation or an amicable solution to a problem. The country is going through an intensifying confrontation with divided thoughts and choices.
The writer is an award-winning columnist, researcher, and Adjunct Asst Prof at Riphah International University, Islamabad. She can be reached at [email protected].