“We are deeply concerned by the
decision of the Egyptian Armed Forces to remove (President Morsi) and suspend the Egyptian constitution. I now call on the Egyptian military to move quickly and responsibly to return full authority back to a democratically elected civilian government” — President Barak Obama.
Moments such as this provide considerable solace to the lone opponent of democracy, similar to the ecstatic emotions on finally reaching the light at the end of a long tunnel. Perhaps it is time to search for a Tonto. The responsibility of provoking contrarian thought is indeed a perilous and solitary calling, urged on only by a sense of responsibility towards the nation; someone has to do the dirty work if there ever has to be a productive discourse. What, however, is rather amusing is that simply turning conventional wisdom upside down has started making more sense!
In this particular case, however, the supporters of democracy knew 48 hours beforehand that martial law was inevitable. Inaction towards prevention is, therefore, indeed curious. Why was immediate military aid denied to a democratically elected government to forestall this attack on the very core of western dogma will remain an enigma. On the other hand this could be a tacit acceptance that democracy can be perceived as a failure when the outcome does not suit the mighty, the beginning of the end. Simply put, the will of the people is only relevant if they elect the ‘right’ government; what if the Egyptians once again vote for the Muslim Brotherhood?
That is if free and fair elections are held anytime soon. The assumption that the military after deposing a democratically elected government will provide any impetus for another democratic government is baffling; why remove the first one if that was the intent? Power is addictive; perhaps the ultimate aphrodisiac, the assumption, therefore, that anybody will give up power easily is illogical.
Ironically, last week, this columnist had pointed out the fallacy inherent in the belief that “This time is different.” In all likelihood the Egyptians, after having elected a democratic government almost a year ago, would have been confident that this time is different; well, as they say, a leopard never changes his spots. But surely there are no similarities between Egypt and Pakistan; things are different here. Just because there is international acceptance of martial law in another country does not by default suggest that it will be palatable in another. Serendipitously, it is not that Naseem Talib’s Black Swan is not always visible; people just don’t want to believe that it is black!
Nonetheless, in defence of the Egyptian coup, CNN highlighted extenuating factors, which included uncontrolled inflation, unemployment, rising national debt, depreciating currency, falling foreign exchange reserves, power and fuel shortages. Does it begin to sound familiar? And to top all of that Egypt is also a large recipient of US aid. If it is still not eerily familiar, than let the black swan cometh!
Prudently, let’s at least analyse the aforestated factors, which apparently legitimatise military adventurism, in the context of Pakistan.
According to government data, inflation is now in single digits and under control. The common man, especially the poor, however, remains sceptical, and again, perhaps for legitimate reasons. Sometimes one can only wonder which country they are talking about. If inflation wasn’t enough, the government now wants to increase its share in already meagre disposable income of the general populace through taxation measures.
As regards unemployment, this is a guesstimate at best, considering that even the size of the population is based on conjecture. Logic doth suggest that with no power for more than half the day, employment can hardly be on the rise.
In the case of debt, the situation is crystal clear. The nation has surpassed all imaginable levels of restraint when contracting debt, which has more than doubled in the last five years. The new government, notwithstanding the compulsions inherited from the previous era, has added on to the burden through additional debt to pay circular debt and the IMF loan of $ 5.3 billion, at the very beginning of its term. The debate whether there was any other option is not relevant for now.
As regards foreign exchange reserves, again there is no doubt that they are on a depleting trajectory, notwithstanding the efforts of overseas Pakistanis, who year on year remit funds above and beyond the call of duty. Notwithstanding that such remittances are uncontrollable and can take an unexpected dip any moment, the nation’s largesse on imports continues unabated.
Currency depreciation is a Pandora’s Box. While the rupee has been depreciating in recent times, the bigger puzzle is what is stopping a slide. Taking good advice and not looking a gift horse in the mouth, the concern is the impact of recent legislation, which tampers with banking secrecy. In a worst case scenario the risk is flight of deposits towards safer havens, dollarisation. In the best case scenario, everybody will start paying taxes!
It would, readers will agree, be an exercise in futility to analyse power and fuel, in this case CNG, shortages. Any belief that Pakistan will come up better than Egypt in that particular comparison is definitely fantastic. The crux of the matter, ladies and gentlemen, is that we seem to be batting one hundred percent on all the parameters, and, unfortunately, this time it is not cricket.
The political analysis of this equation is best left to television anchors, especially in the light of personal inexperience and knowledge of such affairs. Albeit considering the recent rise in breaking news on the idiot box over the last couple of weeks, everything is not well in the kingdom. Nonetheless, to venture an educated guess, the conclusion will still be that this time it is different, martial law is definitely a thing of the past. While recent developments, admittedly, lend enormous credibility to this inference, a particular truism, perhaps one of history’s undisputed lessons, is repeatedly ignored. Might is right!
The objective today is not to support a coup in any manner but simply to spotlight that misguided complacency is not an option. The economic situation is hardly conducive for procrastinating over issues. Push comes to shove, it is not necessary for crowds to gather at the D square to provide an excuse; excuses can always be dreamt up.
Having always held a view that economic stability supersedes each and every other responsibility of the government, the conviction that freedom of speech is more important for the proletariat never fails to bamboozle personal sensibilities. Borrowing, and probably rephrasing, golden words from an unknown author, an overtaxed, an overburdened population will always welcome change, as proven in Egypt, on the simple belief that things can’t get much worse. Unfortunately, things can get worse, and this time is not different.
The best way to celebrate, arguably, is to play golf!
Cheers!
The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad. He can be reached at [email protected] and on twitter @leaccountant