The recent fall of Kunduz to the Taliban left far reaching effects on the ethnic balance in the north where the state has not been in full control since 1992. The fall also occurred due to the administrative and political confrontations between the two ethnic presidents (Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah), which undermined the unity and integrity of the state. Former National Security Adviser (NSA) Rangin Spanta and former Afghan spy chief Rahmatullah Nabil criticised the government for its inability to manage the affairs of the state. President Ashraf Ghani recently admitted that some invisible enemy wanted the political partition of his country. “The enemy’s plan was that the political geography of Afghanistan should be partitioned into two,” he said. On December 3, 2015, the advisor to the chief executive, Mr Sanchakari, warned that some foreign and local groups wanted to divide Afghanistan. These complaints are not political stories; the government lost its control on 70 percent of its territory. Experts think the government is helpless and ineffective to counter such plots and this ineffectiveness might lead to the second Durand Line. The debate on the partition of Afghanistan has gone deep while the president suffers irritation and frustration as some ethnic commanders within the army and police forces are making things worse.
Interestingly, the country is being run by two presidents, two cabinets, two administrations, two bureaucracies, two budgets and two separate decision making entities. The appointments and transfers of governors and executive officers are being done on an ethnic basis. One president transfers or appoints an executive officer or governor, another rejects it and appoints his own men instead. The plan for the second Durand Line is in its final stage, while terrorists have started gathering in second Waziristan (Badakhshan) to push their operations inside Russia and China. President Ghani is also part of the plan of the second Durand Line to permanently divide the country on ethnic lines. Dr Abdullah is beating the drum behind him. Ambassador Robert Blackwill, in one of his speeches at the International Institute for Strategic Studies London disclosed that the US and its allies are thinking about a second Durand Line to divide Afghanistan into south and north.
The exponentially growing networks of Islamic State (IS) and its military strength in the country is a matter of great concern. The issue of controversial standpoints on terrorism remain. President Abdullah brands the Taliban as terrorists while President Ghani says they are not terrorists; they are political opposition. He also says, “Some members of the group have legitimate grievances given the torture and ill treatment they have suffered, and it is necessary to find ways to apologise and heal national wounds.” President Abdullah brands IS as the enemy of the people of Afghanistan while President Ghani remains tight lipped. Pakistan has, in the past, proudly viewed the Taliban as its national asset. Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussian recently admitted that the Afghan Taliban were not considered an enemy on Pakistani soil.
However, the White House views the Taliban as facilitators of peace and IS as its naughty child. The Washington Post recently reported that Iraqi officials said that the US supported IS. Some Iraqi soldiers told the newspaper that they had seen videos of US planes dropping weapons to the IS military command. The US government does not stick to the principles and commitment of the Bilateral Security Accord (BSA) signed in 2014. The Pentagon and CIA are fighting IS in the Middle East and Persian Gulf but provide training to its fighters in Afghanistan. The Strategic Partnership Agreement, which was signed on May 1, 2012 between Afghanistan and the US, clearly elucidates that the Obama administration is committed to the stability and development of Afghanistan but, unfortunately, the Pentagon and CIA never realised the pain of the dying, staggering state of the country.
These contradictions of mind and thought have confused the military establishment of the country, which sacrifices more than 100 young solders every week in the war against the Taliban and IS. The Afghan state machinery is in deep crisis. The state has shattered and generated several states within a fragmented state. The bloodletting between the Taliban and IS continues unabated. Corruption has deeply wounded the body of the state. The staggering, one-leg Afghan state is being run by warlords and war criminals, which promote their own agenda, maintain their own militias and feed them from the state’s budget.
The majority of these war criminals act as police commanders and generals, and receive huge sums from the CIA and Pentagon. They officially control the resources of the missing state and are deeply involved in corruption, sexual abuse and drug trafficking. The clashes among state institutions have often been reported in the Afghan press. Clashes between parliament and local governments, and the scandal of Kabul Bank broke the back of the Afghan economy while, in 2015, Afghan Defence Minister Bismillah Khan Muhammadi and his colleagues defalcated all but $ 250 million in a contract with a foreign oil company. Now the process of revenue generation is in shambles as the tax money goes in the pockets of provincial governors and administrators.
On November 30, 2015, the deputy of the CEO, warlord Muhammad Khan, warned that powerful government officials, warlords and militia commanders had grabbed three million acres of land across the country. Many ethnic groups still need their representation and voice in the government. It is going to be a great task to integrate Afghan society. Afghans are living in a constant state of fear while millions of refugees in Pakistan and Iran are unable to return due to the instability across the country. Roads are not safe. Governors and higher officials, women and children are under threat. Highways, government offices and military headquarters are in danger. There is no job, no health and physical security, no food and no means of earning. As insurgents and separatist groups receive sophisticated weapons from their masters, the national security and territorial integrity of Afghanistan has come even more under threat. It seems the partition of the country is inevitable.
The writer is the author of The Prospect of Nuclear Jihad in Pakistan. He can be reached at [email protected]