Mian Nawaz Sharif’s seething anger and the torrent of his tirade against General (Retd) Pervez Musharraf as well his penchant for his prosecution for ousting his government have stirred the media almost ever since the general’s coup in October 1999. But now when Musharraf is actually here, striving for a second rise and stopped to leave the country by the superior courts, the events would be unfolding into a stunning new scenario if Mian actually becomes the premier and Musharraf and his party pick some space to confront his leadership. The general’s crime against the constitution and the elected institutions evidently also provoked several other political parties and the segments sworn to the sanctity of the constitution who would accordingly also like him to suffer for the sedition. Yet for Sharif and his inner nexus, his intervention had been really a sudden, unexpected personal blow and humiliation. Nawaz was not only ousted from office but even reported to have been pinned to the seat of plane during his transit and thrown in a snake-infested cell where the fear instinctively forced him to cling to the window bars and wail for help. His subsequent dragging into the courts, the allegations of diverting the plane carrying Musharraf, the ensuing imprisonment, indulgence and intervention of the Saudi rulers in his deliverance, the ignominious deal and extradition and asylum in Saudi Arabia are now too familiar a travail.
Even Sharif’s venture to return following the resounding reception of Benazir Bhutto and the failure to land have become haunting reminder of the treatment meted out to him. The traumatic experience also transformed his tracks and traction from being a nonchalant acolyte and agent of the dictatorship to a reasonably more astute exponent of the constitution. He even imbibed the realisation to sustain a democratic dispensation by thwarting the establishment through a requisite cooperation and coexistence among the principal political parties. It gradually evolved into a compact with the PPP pledging some vital reforms in the political process. Gone, at least apparently, were his devotion to dictatorship and the veneration, vows, visits and the unabashed affirmations made at General Ziaul Haq’s grave to further his mission of festering fundamentalism and dictatorship. The change in his posture and politics since then certainly have been a formidable contribution to sustain the democratic process. His assertions for the constitution have also afforded him a veritable veneer to veil his wrath and vexation to wallop Musharraf into an unavoidable national onus to rout the recurrence of generals’ adventurism and dictatorship. This ambition is also expected to be sufficiently aided by a superior judiciary that has now almost persistently elicited an overt proclivity for him. Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the largest national political party, in this entire play, would certainly be caught in a catch 22 conundrum. Apparently, perhaps it would be forced to play as a silent spectator as presently it may be constrained by some international commitments to spare Musharraf the way a safer exit for him was previously orchestrated. Yet having endured the hanging of its founder, the horrendous assassination of Benazir and Murtaza Bhutto, the mysterious poisoning of Shahnawaz Bhutto, as well the trail of deaths, dungeons and flogging of its workers and fragmentation of the entire party during the dictatorships, lending any overt support to the dictator could be entirely suicidal to its psyche and the struggle. Raza Rabbani resolutely steered a demand for the general’s accountability in the Senate while Naveed Qamar, commonly satirised for his sprawling moustache and the siestas in various public séances, has been also seeking a quicker retribution for him.
Still the main onus for prosecuting the general would certainly centre on Mian and his associates especially if according to a popular perception the superior courts somehow fail to take any appropriate action against the dictator. Many prescient legalists have already expressed their apprehensions that the dictator despite a flurry of indictments and judicial juggling may actually escape the conviction. Even if the indictments against him in the Nawab Akbar Bugti, Benazir, Laal Mosque and kindred cases are conducted by the courts, his trial for treason may still be passed on to the parliament. The investigations and prosecution for the cases conducted in the courts would also mostly rest with the state and the requests to reprieve any punishment meted out to him would similarly be passed on to the premier.
But the portents the way Sharif would respond to such rigour and reviews already appear to be rather bleak as compared to his blusters. There is a rampant perception among the public and the media that Mian, propelled by his Saudi benefactors, has already lost most of his anti-Musharraf spiel and swagger. The Saudi moola and muscle nudging Sharif have been quite well known. Mian would have to submit to some similar pressures from his putative allies like the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) that would be certainly sustaining his government if he ever happens to hitch one. This is because the regional resentment, disparities and disillusionments bred by the protracted periods of dictatorships have almost incurably exacerbated the regional and fissiparous tendencies and the regional parties, as result, are bound to bag a significant share of the seats. The prospectus for an absolute majority for Sharif , PPP or any other protagonist now are largely ruled out and the MQM score in the urban Sindh despite Mian’s anguish, would have to be contended with. The stability and grip on governance during his stint, consequently, would be far weaker and wobbling even than the recent span of the PPP rendering him evidently more vulnerable to the MQM whims.
Swaths of other surrogates of the establishment including the shoguns around Sharif’s own brother, would also be pushing him for a softer stance. Still he would have to face the fury and the ferment from the fundamentalist and extremist lobbies and the clergy cabals consumed by their ruthless revenge against Musharraf. The Saudi funds, favours and frown, however, could even calm some of their clamour as most of them are also known for their sustenance and submission to them. His Baloch allies, however, particularly the bereaved Bugti tribes, would definitely be pushing for their pound of flesh from the general. But still given the odds against him, Mian may be forced to muster some other pleas and promises to placate them. Miffed by such gyrating twists and maneuvers, Mian, most likely seems to slip this match and may someday, be receiving Mush at an ostensibly auspicious event, arranged purportedly to promote national harmony and reconciliation just the way he has already embraced Amir Muqam, Marvi Memon and hordes of other Musharraf minions.
The writer is an academic and freelance [email protected]