Afghanistan is famously known as the graveyard of empires, and it probably still holds true. As Robert Gates, erstwhile US Secretary of Defence and Director CIA writes in his book Duty: “For all our good intentions, the American experiences inAfghanistan have not been markedly different from that of the foreigners who preceded us like Great Britain and Russia. I believe we and the Afghans would have been better served had US military departed in 2002 and had thereafter relied on non-military instruments of national power”.
Notwithstanding the nature of the ongoing Afghan peace process, the US government must focus on two serious outcomes. Firstly, the resumption of activities by extremist groups. Secondly, a subsequent outpouring of refugees from Afghanistan to neighbouring countries following the inevitable collapse of the present set-up in Kabul and a possible takeover by the Taliban. Both would trigger civil war.
History repeats itself, but in such cunning disguise that we can never detect its true face until the damage is done. The upheavals in Afghanistan are not exclusively of Afghans’ own making. These have roots outside the country, and the fear is that the country will become a hub of terrorism; a battleground for competing agendas. After all, the US did not go to war in either Afghanistan or Iraq to enforce democracy or to precipitate economic prosperity. Washington waged them because it perceived the regimes there as posing a threat the American unipolar world.
Prevailing anti-US sentiment in the Muslim world is borne of countless betrayals and grievances, such as: unquestionable support for Israel; championing and selling arms to Middle East dictators; the Afghan and Iraq wars; and the drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen
Oftentimes, the stories coming out of Afghanistan focus on ethnic and tribal wars, the opium trade, the war on terrorism and excessive human rights violations. Precious little is spoken about the Afghan people themselves, their culture and traditions, what life is like for them, and how they manage as exiles abroad. Prevailing anti-US sentiment in the Muslim world is borne of countless betrayals and grievances, such as: unquestionable support for Israel; championing and selling arms to Middle East dictators; the Afghan and Iraq wars; and the drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen that killed more civilians than intended targets.
The pertinent question is, why should Pakistan worry about the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan? The answer is very simple: instability in Afghanistan causes insecurity in Pakistan. Indeed, its a long-held US contention that the Taliban continue to maintain their sanctuaries on Pakistani soil and direct insurgent attacks in Afghanistan.
After the American exit, the Taliban are expected to see the war through its natural conclusion, which the latter strongly believes it has a already won. Reports of Afghan government soldiers surrendering to the Taliban are on the increase. Dozens of besieged outposts or bases, and four districts governments have been relinquished to Taliban forces in an accelerating rural collapse. Pakistan shares 2,600 kilometres of porous borders with Afghanistan and is always the adversely affected country due to the possibility of unconstrained refugee influxes as well as potential surges in terrorism attacks. The departure of US troops will result in increased violence between the Kabul regime and the rival Taliban, thereby enhancing US dependence on Pakistan.
Thus, Islamabad is certainly interested in a stable Afghanistan, but anticipated stability may not prevail after the American exit. This will be most unfortunate and should have been anticipated. Furthermore, it will be extremely unfair to criticise Pakistan for continued disagreements among Afghan stakeholders and the inability of Washington to appreciate Islamabad’s unqualified and relentless efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan.
The Pakistan-US bilateral relationship is a long and historic one and has always served the mutual interests of both countries. Pakistan’s military bases, ground and air lines of communication have played a crucial role in facilitating and sustaining the US-led military invasion of landlocked Afghanistan some 20 years ago. The withdrawal will impact Pakistan’s stability deleteriously but there doesn’t seem to be any indication that the US is prepared to appreciate and work with Pakistan, reducing the risks of destabilisation. Rather, Washington is likely to continue blaming Pakistan for American failures in Afghanistan. For it isn’t always easy to accept defeat when things go wrong, even less so when the world’s most powerful military is in the hot seat. Hence, it becomes easy to blame other warring partners.
However, the US is engaged in significant diplomatic efforts to determine where it would base a counterterrorism force in the region to deter terrorist groups once international forces leave Afghanistan. No such understanding currently exists vis-a-vis any of Afghanistan’s neighbours. This may also be meant to signal to Pakistan that if the U.S. is to help Pakistan with its security needs, Islamabad will need to offer something in return, such as the use of its military bases. In nutshell Pakistan-US relevance will continue with some ups and downs, with pauses.
The writer is a retired Army Officer