As the world witnessed truce between Taliban and the US, there was a prevailing narrative that since Trump wants to be re-elected by ending the longest war in Afghanistan, this deal might serve him in the forthcoming presidential elections. Now, the question arises will this deal really help Trump or not? Before answering this question, let us see what factors play important role in the US Presidential elections. In today’s hierarchical world order, the US still dominates, being the sole super power, the global chessboard. Therefore, there are often many caveats attached to the US Presidential elections. Who enters the Oval office has always been of paramount importance for not only the world but also for the American security establishment. The very objective of the US establishment is to sustain the American supremacy in world affairs. Lately, Trump does not seem to enjoy good relations with the security establishment of the country.
It is important to recall that President Donald Trump had won his previous elections by focusing zmore on the domestic front than foreign affairs. He often talked about other states taking benefit of America economically and after becoming the President he did end or revise trade agreements where imbalances resulted in economic losses to the US. He talked about underdevelopment in different parts of the country, i.e. the poor condition of bridges, roads, and soaring unemployment, etc. During primaries, conventions and Presidential debates, he rarely had talked on foreign policy matters.
Though he had talked about the “stupid” longest wars where the US got itself engaged and here even he meant the excessive burden of these wars on American economy. Fixing the US problems that too economic in nature earned him the place in the Oval office. If one closely monitors Trump’s economic performance, the economic outlook looks slightly better than his predecessors. According to Washington Post, unemployment rate was 4.7 percent in Dec ’16/Jan ’17, which stands around 3.7 percent today. More than half of the US population, i.e. fifty nine-59 percent are confident and optimistic of the US economy, according to Gallup survey “Mood of the Nation”.
There is no denying the fact that the deal is historic in nature but again the American domestic issues mainly, among very few foreign policy matters, would decide the future results of the US Presidential elections
Again, it is not about the deal with the Taliban but the peace and normalcy returning to Afghanistan. The Taliban still do not recognize the Afghan government and there are different factions within Afghanistan, which have varying ideologies and approaches when it comes to affairs of the country. A lot would depend on intra-Afghan dialogue following this deal. We have already witnessed Ashraf Ghani’s ominous statement on release of Taliban soon after very few hours of the deal and Taliban attacks on the Afghan forces. So, if peace does not return and Afghanistan plunges into yet another civil war, the deal may not serve the US’ purpose of declaring victory and leave. Although Trump, during his election campaign, would tend to talk tall about the Taliban deal and ending the longest “stupid” war in Afghanistan, but this may have very little impact on the ballot papers.
There is no denying the fact that the deal is historic in nature but again the American domestic issues mainly, among very few foreign policy matters, would decide the future results of the US Presidential elections. Trump’s views on and handling of media, minorities, women, and American blacks etc., shall play very important role in deciding his fate in the upcoming Presidential elections. “About half of all Americans think President Donald Trump’s actions have been bad for African Americans, Muslims and women, according to a new poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research”. Also, on media the usage of word “dumb” by Trump has been so frequent while referring to Media that did not synchronize with his politico-socio-economic beliefs and actions.
On foreign policy, the US security establishment would like any Presidential candidate talking tough on Russia and China predicaments. Almost all the US security documents, i.e. National Security Strategy ’17, National Defense Strategy ’18, National Military Strategy ’18, Nuclear Posture Review ’18, Indo-Pacific Strategy ’19, and National Intelligence Strategy ’19 have directly or indirectly hyphenated Russia and China as “strategic competitors”. But again unlike China, will Trump openly talk against Russia is a million dollar question. Trump has not doubt altered the traditional way America interacted with the world and he has been criticized within the country of his softer approach on Russia.
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