The White House is fast becoming a place of surprises in recent days. Last week US President Trump escalated tension by the assassination of Iranian commander Gen Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. Within three days, when US military bases came under missile attack, Trump unexpectedly backed down, much to the displeasure of his allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Now, he has abruptly ended the two-year trade conflict with China, sending much awaited relief to trade hubs and stock exchange markets. Both leading economic powers – the US and China – have signed a trade peace treaty, which will benefit not just the two countries but the whole world. Earlier, when the US president started the trade tiff with China, political and trade pundits feared the economic conflict might last for decades. The unexpected move may be the outcome of impeachment and reelection bid pressure on Trump. He chose to break the news of the deal when the US Senate was presenting articles of impeachment so the media would turn towards a pleasant surprise. Calling the agreement “momentous,” he signed the deal with China’s Vice Premier Liu He, and said “together, we are righting the wrongs of the past.” Inching towards a new normal, Trump also promised to visit China “in the-not-too-distant future”.
The trade pact is a win-win situation for both countries as China prevailed in maintaining tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of exports, leaving American consumers and businesses to foot the bill. In return, China pledged to buy more American crops and other items, all worth $200 billion, besides providing protection for US technology and new enforcement mechanisms. China also sees the deal as “good for China, for the US and for the whole world.” The deal has two phases, but phase two negotiations mainly depend on the successful implementation of the phase one. The US must learn lessons from recent events. Firstly, unnecessary wars are self-defeating and it is easier to start a war than to end it. Secondly, opponents are never short of ammunition, especially when the rival is a formidable economic power like China. Thirdly, it’s always better to negotiate conflicts to an end. *