“It is not enough to have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space,” US President Donald Trump has said, adding that he doesn’t want to see “China and other countries leading us.” With this aim, the Trump administration is in the process of creating a US Space Force, the sixth branch of the US military service, which will undertake missions and operations in the rapidly evolving space domain. In view of these developments at the global level, the strategic landscape is going through significant changes and challenges where states are eager to acquire sophisticated technology in order to ensure their dominance. These ambitions are triggering a never-ending arms race and are negatively affecting the strategic stability both at regional as well as international level. Likewise, quest for space dominance and counter-space capabilities are challenging the already fragile arms control regime.
Colin Gray, one of the world’s most reputed scholars of strategy, says that space power is the ability to use space while denying reliable use to any foe. As of now, the world has around 2,062 active satellites of different types. The major satellite nations are US (901), Russia(153) and China (299), while the rest of the world has 709 satellites in total. Of this, the military satellites distribution is US (123), Russia (74) and China (68). France, Israel and India are around 10 each. Undoubtedly, the space has become a military theatre that states wants to conquer as space arms race is already underway. The US, Russia, China and India have shown that they have the capability to physically destroy satellites in orbit.
On March 27, 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that his country has successfully conducted an anti-satellite (ASAT) test from a launch site on Abdul Kalam Island in the Bay of Bengal. India claimed that it has now joined an ‘elite’ group of countries with ASAT capabilities, which includes the US, Russia and China. In an election rally in Meerut on March 28,, 2019, Modi referred to the ASAT test as a ‘surgical strike in space’. Additionally, according to an estimate by NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, Mission Shakti created at least 400 pieces of debris, about 24 of those were thrown into orbits with apogees above the International Space Station (ISS). The US government estimates that the debris impact risk to the ISS of small debris impact has risen by 44 percent as a result of the test. These pieces of debris can travel at speeds of over 17,000 miles per hour, damaging commercial and military satellites they come into contact with, sometimes rendering them entirely inoperable.
India’s quest for space dominance will affect the strategic landscape of South Asian region in particular and non-proliferation regime in general
It has been argued that Indian space capabilities can also be used to strengthen its ballistic missile defence (BMD) systems by targeting the opponent’s incoming missiles in their boost phase which will further challenge the strategic stability. Dr Satheesh Reddy, head of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), said after the ASAT demonstration, “We are working on a number of technologies like DEWs (directed-energy weapons), lasers, and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and co-orbital weapons. I can’t divulge details.”
Furthermore, the present government of India has decided to set up a Defense Space Agency (DSA) with command over the space assets of the Army, Navy and Air Force. It is the most significant development in India’s defense establishment. The newly instituted DSA will be supported by a Defense Space Research Organization (DSRO) that should create weapons to ‘deny, degrade, disrupt, destroy or deceive an adversary’s space capability’. Hence, India is on its way to militarise and weaponise the space by all means.
It has been reported in media that India is organising its first simulated spacewarfare exercise in July, supposedly to counter China’s growing capabilities in this domain that borders on science fiction. The space warfare simulation will help identify potential threats and the kind of response matrix that India can bring to bear with its current capabilities, and also identify areas of aspiration. They are calling it ‘IndSpaceEx’ with all the stakeholders including its scientific establishment and the military.
India is also planning to launch an orbital crewed spacecraft by 2022, and more recently, the Institute of Space and Research Organisation(ISRO) chief announced the goal of establishing a space station by 2030. Many of these missions will develop technologies that have military applications. India already has 16 military-dedicated satellites. Such arrangements are showing India’s intent of not only militarising but also weaponising the space. India’s quest for space dominance and counter-space capabilities will highly affect the strategic landscape of South Asian region in particular and non-proliferation regime in general.
India has already shown irresponsible behavior on various occasions and now it is moving towards the outer space. There is lack of outer space governance at the international levels. Treaties and arrangements to use space only for peaceful purposes are not as effective as they should be. Lack of governance is leading to an alarming situation. Initiatives such as the Outer Space Treaty (OST) bans the placement of nuclear weapons in space and prohibits national appropriation of celestial objects, or building military installations. However, it does not ban military activities in space, space-oriented military forces or the use of conventional weapons in space. Likewise, the ‘Moon Treaty’ is neither acceded to, nor ratified by any of the space-faring nations. There is a dire need to revisit treaties and laws governing the outer space to protect extra-terrestrial security interests and curb militarisation of the outer space. The absence of an effective legal arrangement against space militarisation leading to weaponisation opens a window for states to exploit these legal gaps for their own geopolitical, geo-economic and geostrategic interests. Hence, efforts should be made to avoid ‘Star Wars’ instead of promoting it.
The writer is Visiting Faculty at Fatima Jinnah Women University