On June 25, the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) head Pir Sabghatullah Rashidi, better known as Pir Pagara, once again claimed that the GDA, after wining a majority of seats, will form government in Sindh after the 2018 general election. From the current political scenario existing in the province it can be concluded that Pagara’s supposition is pretty far-fetched. In reality, no political change seems to be coming in the recent future.
Sindh’s rural and urban politics remained unchallenged and unchanged and it revolved around Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Mutahhida Qaumi Movement (MQM). The parties had had political domination in the province. In the last two general elections, out of overall 130 general seats in Sindh, the PPP secured 71 and the MQM 39. It is in the recent past that urban Sindh’s politics got a serious setback when the political dominance of MQM was broken. In the upcoming election, the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) can give tough time to the MQM. But in the rural Sindh, at the time, we see no strong and resilient political opponents to the PPP. The party being a strong political entity and being in power for consecutively a decade has failed in making Sindh a developed province. No genuine efforts have been taken to solve problems of the people. Despite the fact, the PPP has maintained its electoral hegemony. Moreover, now chances for the PPP have increased to win some seats in Sindh’s urban centres, like Karachi and Hyderabad.
The GDA, an anti-PPP alliance, is consisted of Pakistan Muslim League-F (PML-F) headed by Pir Pagara, Qaumi Awami Tehreek (QAT) headed by Ayaz Latif Palijo, National People’s Party (NPP) led by Ghulam Murtaza Jatoi, Pakistan People’s Party (Workers) led by Safdar Ali Abbasi and some other likeminded political groups.
Unfortunately, the GDA has no program for the betterment of the people of Sindh. It has launched no manifesto to create confidence and hope in the minds of the people, to resolve all of the problems they have been grappling with for long, to give them social and economic relief, bring about improvements in educational and health institutions, and give good governance. The alliance lacks a strong leadership to lead it towards a success. Though it was believed that Pagara will provide active and energetic leadership after he held the largest public gathering in Hyderabad and carried out political activities in every nook and corner of Sindh. Moreover, the GDA is seen as a force of the status quo. Most of its politicians have been a part of previous governments. Some of them have served as chief ministers—Arbab Ghulam Rahim, and Ghous Ali Shah—but reportedly their performance was worse than the PPP. Thus, the GDA will not be able to secure more than 10 provincial seats in the 2018 election.
The problem with the Sindhi nationalists has been their failure to transform themselves to challenge the PPP. Firstly, the nationalists stayed away from electoral politics and secondly, they could not organise themselves as a strong political organisation to provide people with an alternative political platform
The problem with the Sindhi nationalists has been their failure to transform themselves to challenge the PPP. Firstly, the nationalists stayed away from electoral politics and secondly, they could not organise themselves as a strong political organisation to provide people with an alternative political platform. Even today, the daunting split in the nationalist groups exists. In the 2018 election, the nationalist groups are contesting against one another. The two key leaders—Dr Qadir Magsi, chairman Sindh Taraqi Pasand Party (STP) and Ayaz Latif Palijo, president Qaumi Awami Tehreek (QAT) and the general secretary of the GDA are contesting from PS-62 Hyderabad. The Sindh United Party (SUP) headed by Jalal Mahmood Shah, enjoys a relatively good reputation among the educated and nationalist-minded segments of Sindhi society, however, its network across Sindh is not strong enough to consolidate gains from public gatherings, into electoral power. According to expert opinion, only the head of SUP can win one provincial seat.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has made seat adjustment with the GDA to contest against the PPP in Sindh but it will not succeed in securing even a single seat in rural Sindh because it has failed to capitalise on the general sentiments as the party has no program for the betterment of people of the region. It cannot be denied that the PTI would win a few provincial assembly seats in urban Sindh. Thus the PTI and the GDA will neither will be beneficial for each other nor would be threat to the PPP in Sindh.
Tabdeeli Pasand Party (TPP), launched by Muhammad Ali Qazi, who hails from Hyderabad’s well-known Qazi family, is believed to be the third main political force in Sindh. The TPP has constructive and meaningful manifesto for the people of Sindh. It wants accountability for all, every child in school, inexpensive medical treatment and quality medicines. It believes that access to safe water is a basic right. It supports better infrastructure, industrial growth, employment, a people-friendly police and protection of minorities. The TPP’s strategy is to attract anti-status quo votes and has taken less known but influential local community leaders on board. The TPP head has fielded 19 candidates against the PPP across Sindh. As they are the novice and inexperienced player in politics and have yet not contested elections, therefore for them it is not possible to bring about political change in Sindh by defeating the PPP in the 2018 election. Qazi himself contests from the PS-63 Hyderabad against the PPP’s Sharjeel Inam Memon. The PTI has withdrawn its candidate in favour of him, while the GDA has not fielded its candidate against him under another adjustment. Possibly, he can win his seat.
The undeniable fact is that it’s pretty unlikely that Sindh will see any political change after the 2018 elections because the PPP in Sindh seems to be reinvigorated and their success in the upcoming elections clearly seems unavoidable. The fact remains that Sindh desperately needs honest, popular and charismatic alternative political leadership in order to convincingly defeat the PPP and bring about real change in the region.
The writer is an academic, and tweets @ARShykh
Published in Daily Times, July 20th 2018.