The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oil and gas demand may grow until 2050. The agency said the world risks missing its climate goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. This shift challenges previous predictions of a fast transition to cleaner energy sources.
The IEA report reflects current government policies, not pledges or aspirational climate targets. It forecasts oil demand could reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, a 13% rise from 2024. Global energy demand is also expected to increase by 90 exajoules by 2035, driven by industry and power needs.
Read more: IEA cuts oil demand outlook, fears impact of Global Supply by Russia
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity is projected to surge by 50% by 2030. This growth responds to rising demand from data centres, AI, and the power sector. Investments in data centres alone are expected to exceed $580 billion in 2025, surpassing oil supply spending.
The IEA emphasized that diverging government choices and electric vehicle adoption rates affect demand projections. OPEC disputes the idea of peak oil, suggesting demand may continue to grow beyond forecasts. The report shows that current policies make it unlikely to meet the 1.5°C temperature target.
Read more: IEA cuts 2019 estimate for oil demand growth on global trade worries
Experts called for urgent global action to close the climate ambition gap ahead of COP30. Without rapid policy changes, fossil fuel use will rise, worsening climate risks. The IEA’s analysis underscores the urgent need for accelerated clean energy adoption worldwide.