The strategic landscape of South Asia is mainly defined by the balance of power equation between two nuclear states, India and Pakistan. The conflictual relationship of India with other states is also becoming a perpetual driver of evolving security dynamics in South Asia. Unlike other regions where shared prosperity and cooperative frameworks are a priority, in South Asia, India-the bigger state-follows a hegemonic and zero-sum approach.
Indian strategic thinking is based on establishing political and military domination in the region, which seriously clashes with other regional states’ approaches of economic integration, connectivity, and peaceful co-existence. This approach is also manifested by India in its dispute resolution with its neighbors. Kashmir remains the major dispute, which Pakistan wants to resolve based on UNSC resolutions, while India believes it can manage militarily within occupied Jammu & Kashmir and beyond its borders through military coercion.
Kashmir remains the major dispute, which Pakistan wants to resolve based on UNSC resolutions, while India believes it can manage militarily within occupied Jammu & Kashmir and beyond its borders through military coercion.
South Asia is also witnessing India’s transformation into more of a theological state, now preferring to call itself Bharat-a Hindu Rashtra (India for Hindus only). Indian political leadership led by the BJP, with Hindutva-driven aspirations and revisionist strategic thinking, is becoming a real challenge to peace and stability in South Asia. South Asia’s proximity to the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Afghanistan adds complexity to its strategic dynamics. Major power rivalries in the Asia-Pacific have enabled India to exploit its relevance to U.S. strategic interests, impacting regional stability. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East further complicate the South Asian security paradigm. India is exploiting Afghanistan’s instability by supporting terrorist groups like the TTP and BLA against Pakistan. These realities make South Asia’s strategic landscape complex and evolving. To evaluate it, global geo-political and geo-strategic trends must also be examined.
Global Geo-Strategic Trends
The world is witnessing the emergence of multiple centers of economic and military power in a multipolar global setting. Recalibration of the balance of power, with emphasis on issue-based partnerships, is on the horizon. The collapse of the international order has made military power the new currency of inter-state relations. The genocide of Palestinians by Israel, with no effective response from the international community, exemplifies this collapse. Israel’s military aggression against Iran, including attacks on nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, has unprecedented implications for the credibility of the Nuclear Proliferation Regime and the UN system. Pakistan strongly condemned this aggression and stood on the right side of international law, while India remained muted.
China and Russia’s emerging role as major powers is becoming increasingly significant in bringing some stability to regional conflicts. However, the global nuclear order faces multidimensional challenges as foundational arms control agreements collapse. Major powers are modernizing their nuclear arsenals and integrating disruptive technologies such as hypersonic missiles, AI-enabled drones, cyber weapons, and anti-satellite systems. These developments blur the line between conventional and nuclear warfare, increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation. These realities raise critical questions about the diminishing role of diplomacy, the increasing reliance on military strength, and the implications for regional strategic stability.
To be concluded
The writer is Retired General (Pakistan Army)