DUBAI – A week has passed since the United States brokered a fragile truce between Israel and Iran, putting an end to a 12-day conflict that had escalated tensions across the Middle East. While the ceasefire has held so far, many crucial questions remain unanswered—raising uncertainty about the long-term prospects of peace and regional stability.
The ceasefire followed a dramatic U.S. airstrike in which “bunker-busting” bombs were dropped on three key Iranian nuclear sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. President Donald Trump called the mission a success, saying the targets were “obliterated.” However, early assessments suggest that although significant damage was done, the facilities were not completely destroyed. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), parts of the sites still remain operational, and Iran could restart nuclear activities if it chooses to.
Tensions resurfaced quickly after the truce. Trump initially hinted at easing decades-long sanctions and even expressed hope that Iran could become a major trade partner if it abandoned its nuclear ambitions. But just days later, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared the attack a “slap to America’s face.” Trump fired back, saying Iran “got beat to hell” and paused discussions on sanction relief. This back-and-forth highlights the deep mistrust still shaping U.S.-Iran relations.
Despite the ceasefire, Iran’s future role remains unclear. The country retaliated with limited missile attacks on a U.S. base in Qatar, but American defenses intercepted them without casualties. U.S. officials labeled the move as a face-saving gesture rather than a real threat. However, security agencies have warned that Iran might turn to cyber warfare. Recent attempts by Iran-linked hackers to target U.S. banks and infrastructure have raised alarms, with the Department of Homeland Security issuing a nationwide alert.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is now pushing Israel to pivot toward peace in Gaza. Trump has made it clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will not launch further strikes and wants a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas. While Netanyahu agreed to the truce with Iran, he warned that Israel reserves the right to strike again if Iran restarts its nuclear program. So far, Iran has refused to commit to dismantling its nuclear infrastructure, leaving the core issue unresolved.
Adding to the uncertainty is the unclear state of Iran’s internal leadership. Supreme Leader Khamenei, despite recent health rumors and time spent in a bunker during the conflict, appears to still control the country’s military and political operations. His central role, along with the powerful Revolutionary Guard’s dominance, means Iran’s policies are likely to remain hardline. Analysts believe his stance will determine whether Iran returns to negotiations or continues its confrontational path.
While Trump remains publicly optimistic, saying a ceasefire deal in Gaza could happen “within a week,” he has offered no clear roadmap. Israeli officials are expected in Washington soon to discuss next steps. Yet, without meaningful commitments from Iran and concrete progress in Gaza, many fear the region could slide back into conflict at any moment.
Ultimately, the current peace remains highly fragile. The ceasefire has stopped the bombs, but not the mistrust, political blame, or regional ambitions. What happens next depends on whether diplomacy can take root—or whether this calm is merely the eye of a much bigger storm.