The recent escalation between Iran and Israel is a grave threat to regional peace, security, stability and geopolitical dynamics. Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, Tehran defended its sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to Tel Aviv’s large-scale strikes on the former’s military installations and nuclear facilities, targeting top commanders and atomic scientists.
The fresh spate of Israeli attacks against Iran is allegedly a result of the latter’s nuclear enrichment program, which Tel Aviv sees as an existential threat. On the contrary, it is the nuclear-equipped Israel that has been undermining the region’s peace and stability by committing genocidal acts against the innocent Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.
Had the US not boosted Israel’s morale by equipping Israel with cutting-edge military technology, the situation would have been entirely different. The so-called broker of peace, Donald Trump, on the other hand, threatened to wipe out the entire Gaza Strip under the guise of his Gaza Riviera Plan.
The so-called broker of peace, Donald Trump, on the other hand, threatened to wipe out the entire Gaza Strip under the guise of his Gaza Riviera Plan.
These latest developments undoubtedly pose an existential threat to the globe in general and the Middle East in particular. In case the ongoing conflict continues, there are several repercussions for Pakistan. First and foremost, oil and gas prices are expected to increase sharply, further impacting Pakistan’s import burden.
Second, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project will further get stalled owing to the disturbances in shipping routes. Third, trade between Pakistan, Iran, and the region surrounding the Middle East will be severely affected, and Pakistan’s exports to the region will decline. The import-export Imbalance will cause ripple effects, weakening the country’s crippling economy by ramping up the trade deficit. The prospects for a GDP growth target of 4.2 per cent in line with the 2025-26 budget projections will further be downgraded, resulting in GDP growth of even less than the present value of 2.5 per cent.
Fourth, the threat of terrorism across the Pak-Iran border will intensify, paving the way for the Baloch insurgents to expedite their anti-national activities. Fifth, there is also the probability of increasing sectarian differences within the county, signalling an alarming rise in the Shia-Sunni debate.
Such instances will only propagate extremism and terrorism in the country, weakening the social fabric from within. Thus, unless the conflict subsides soon, the world in general and Pakistan in particular will continue to bear the spillover effects in the years to come.
The writer is a lecturer at Riphah International University