Today is the day that Donald Trump’s tariff scheme should go into effect. Possibly they shall if the president is not using tariffs for negotiations or other tools. Or perhaps the president has different motives. And tomorrow could be the day of reckoning.
Regardless, the threat and uncertainty of impending tariffs have shaken markets and rattled investors. But beyond this one area, the Trump administration in ten weeks has moved forward with remarkable speed across many areas.
Having spent last week in Paris and met with a number of old and new hands, the reactions abroad especially to the infamous Signal conference call before the Yemen strikes and the disparaging of NATO and Europe could be more negative.
How could this turn of events have happened so rapidly since Trump became president? These examples of MAD-massive attacks of disruption-are stunning in the extreme and cross virtually all international and domestic boundaries. Would any of them have been so predictable in such a short time frame?
First, Trump learned a great deal during his first presidency. Scholars may debate that in his own idiosyncratic way, Trump was better prepared for a second term than his predecessors. And that he has moved so quickly to implement his plans is evidence.
Second, whether or not the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 was Trump’s blueprint, much of what it had proposed was part of the president’s thinking. And his nominees, no matter how controversial or not, conformed to his intent.
Third, he maintained his brain trust. Senior advisor and deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller has been with Trump as well as others. During four years in the wilderness after losing in 2016, the team had ample opportunity to refine and expand their thinking and views on governing.
Fourth, despite its gold toilets and other displays of wealth, Trump’s Mar a Lago took on the role of a super salon where the ex-president held court. An invitation was seen as a reward. Indeed, it is hard to recall any other presidential residence that had such an appeal. Not only that: but because Trump made no effort to separate himself from other members and residents, the place had a special appeal in terms of public relations.
Fifth, Trump is a great showman. He was able to refine his acts accordingly using much of America’s passion for sports and other events where he would be seen and would take charge. From wrestling championships to NASCAR racing events, Trump was the people’s president in action, observing and congratulating winners. And if not daily but frequent appearances on Fox News helped.
The efforts to bring peace to Israel and Gaza were noble. Tragically and predictably, failure seemed likely.
Last, by having events televised from the White House, Trump dominated the political spectrum crowding out the competition. Democrats may have made occasional attempts to intervene. However, Trump has Trumped them.
It is unclear how or when Team Trump grabbed onto common sense and used it as a weapon to drive Democrats crazy by making them seemingly the anti-common sense party. Transgender issues are THE example. With some 80% of Americans condemning boys playing girl’s sports, Democrats decided to back the 20%.
Still, the consequences of the Trump initiatives are turning against him. The Signal conference call on the Red Sea bombing mission against the Houthis had Jeffrey Goldberg, the Atlantic Magazine’s editor, incredibly dialled in. Worse, Trump’s cabinet officers lied in dismissing the event as trivial. Ask our closest allies, about their views and whether they will trust us in terms of sensitive intelligence.
The tariffs will hit and hurt a majority of Americans. Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are inadvertently following the first law of counterterrorism. Kill one; create ten more. By its heavy-handed tactics, Musk is doing just that.
The efforts to bring peace to Israel and Gaza were noble. Tragically and predictably, failure seemed likely. And Ukraine is an IED-an improvised explosive device. Here Trump has double-trapped himself.
He cannot control Russian President Putin. While Trump has humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, will not agree to terms that make Russia the arbiter of Ukraine’s future. And Trump may be losing confidence in Putin.
Over the weekend, the president was unhappy with the lack of Russian progress and complained, “I am pissed!”
How that translates into Russian remains to be seen. But, because of the unprecedented pace of change and disruption, Trump is in trouble.
On the current course, a day of reckoning is inevitable. Then what?
The writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.