The title is inspired by my book Diplomacy and Deterrence: Blending D2 to achieve Peace, Stability, and Security, published by Peter Lang Publishing Inc. New York in November 2024.
I have argued that global and regional powers continue to pursue the age-old international relations theory of Realism, which is based on power, interests, and security, to influence relatively minor states and create fear, thereby drawing benefits from their resources for their benefit. However, if these powers adopted diplomacy and offered incentives, the same result could be achieved without terrorizing the smaller states.
The evolving world order, based on neopolitics -a hybrid term encompassing geopolitics, geostrategy, and geoeconomics -calls for a more nuanced approach to international politics. One can study the approach adopted by China under its landmark Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) programme globally. China, under the BRI, aims to connect the world’s various regions through road, rail, and sea routes.
Suppose the purpose of old colonial masters and reigning world powers was to influence the behaviour of smaller nations. In that case, China achieves the same goal through smart investments rather than creating fear through deterrence or compellence.
China has successfully adopted the soft power approach through economic diplomacy.
For the deterrence to be effective, the threats must be accompanied by incentives which are attractive enough to convince the target state to follow suit. However, Western nations still adopt a Machiavellian approach, which is based on the use of hard power to achieve objectives.
Hence, the wars between Unequal military Powers (UMPs) have now become a norm, particularly since the tragic events of 9/11.
There is no denying that the 9/11 attacks should not have happened, but the US reaction could have been more sober and could have been delayed until a formal investigation had been completed. Concersely, within weeks, President Bush ordered a massive bombing campaign on Afghanistan against Al Qaeda leadership hiding in the country.
The result was obvious. Afghanistan was turned into ruins, and the US and NATO troops remained in the war-ravaged country for over two decades, even after Al Qaeda had been dismembered after its leadership was eliminated in an intelligence-based operation inside Pakistan’s territory.
While Afghanistan was eradicated and will take decades to rebuild itself, the US also did not earn a good name in its history of wars and conflicts against smaller states. Moreover, its economy suffered a severe blow during the two-decade-long war, resulting in a loss of over two trillion USD.
During the period, the US also got involved in another unnecessary war in Iraq based on fake intelligence folders that the country has developed Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). The US’ engagements in these two wars, Afghanistan and Iraq, gave enough time to China to quietly build its economy and consolidate its power to challenge US’ hegemony as a sole superpower. It is inconceivable for a thinking mind that successive US Administrations ignored China’s rise, unless students of international affairs like myself started writing that China is not rising, but has already risen.
Now that the developing nations have found a new leader, China, they have overtly started refusing to comply with the directions of their old colonial masters and the US. Most African nations have already turned their back, like Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, and more are queuing up to remove the colonial shackles on their resources. Instead, China now has significantly greater access and influence over most African states, having invested heavily in projects such as roads, rail, ports, energy, and climate change initiatives under the BRI. Nearly all of China’s projects across Africa are aimed at improving the lives of the impoverished people of these states through connectivity and communication.
Gone are the days when smaller nations would surrender to colonial powers without putting up resistance and let them grab their resources to leave the people hungry and without shelter. China has undoubtedly given them something to cherish, which may empower them to stand on their feet one day. Because there was no dearth of resources, natural and human, all they needed was strong and incorruptible leadership who could stand firm against the external looters and plunderers.
China has successfully adopted the soft power approach through economic diplomacy, rather than military deterrence, to achieve the same objective and influence the behaviour of smaller states. Now, China leads a strong group of the Global South, comprising over 130 states worldwide. In contrast, one-time colonial masters are fast losing ground in states that were once their territories.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”