For the last two years, Ukraine has counted on Western support, led by the US, for not just military equipment and economic aid, but a near-blank check of diplomatic support.
All this is set to change as the previously simmering-behind-the-scenes tensions between the Trump administration and the Ukrainian government fully erupted into public view on Wednesday. Washington is contemplating a major shift in its approach to the conflict, aiming to “end the war in one day.” However, there is uncertainty about how to safeguard Ukraine’s interests, particularly amid controversial claims that Kyiv bears some responsibility for initiating the invasion.
This invasion has, to date, resulted in the deaths of an estimated 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers and at least 12,000 civilians. As a result, there is little hope for the self-proclaimed “artist of the deal.” More worryingly, Trump wants Ukraine to give US companies preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral deposits as compensation for the tens of billions of dollars of aid delivered under his predecessor Joe Biden. With every passing day, Europe is beginning to resemble a chaotic chessboard where no one is clear about the rules.
Since the neighbouring countries also rely on the US for security purposes, this turnaround suggests a drastic paradigm shift across the continent. For some, it may translate into a revocation of the much-celebrated welfare model and, for others, a haunting return to the pre-EU era of hostility. As for the case of Ukraine, if allies see a reluctant US, they will follow suit and retreat from their support. What that means for a long-drawn-out bloody and bitter war, would depend on Russia and its set of demands.
Between territorial issues, demilitarisation of Ukraine and a new chief in town, Moscow wishes for the entire status quo to be disrupted; something that is bound to not sit well with Europe. According to them, supporting Ukraine is not only about fighting Russia.
It is also about protecting global stability because a strong Ukraine serves as a barrier against aggression that could spill over to other countries. By spelling out his priorities to “keep the gravy train moving,” President Trump risks detonating his relationship with a group of countries the Biden administration routinely counted on as his biggest pompom-holder. *