Recent shifts in South Asia’s geopolitics have placed Pakistan at a crucial crossroads, where strategic decisions will shape its future trajectory. The unveiling of a new border crossing between Pakistan and Iran is more than just a logistical breakthrough, it symbolizes a bold move to enhance bilateral trade, energy cooperation, and regional stability. However, as Islamabad strengthens ties with Tehran, Afghanistan’s growing partnership with India adds a layer of complexity to Pakistan’s geopolitical puzzle.
With the rise of new trade corridors and evolving alliances, Pakistan is faced with the challenge of adapting its diplomatic and economic strategies to maintain its influence in a rapidly changing landscape. These developments not only highlight the shifting power dynamics in the region but also underscore the urgency for Pakistan to recalibrate its approach to safeguard its national interests.
On January 11, 2025, Pakistan officially inaugurated a new border crossing at Kohak Cheedgi in Panjgur, Balochistan, in partnership with Iran. This strategically important development aims to facilitate legal trade, curb the rampant smuggling of goods, and create much-needed employment opportunities for the communities on both sides of the border.
China’s strategic investments in CPEC and ties with Iran and Afghanistan deepen regional complexities, with Pakistan’s alignment offering a counterbalance to India’s influence.
Positioned as a vital link in the growing economic cooperation between Pakistan and Iran, the crossing is expected to significantly enhance bilateral trade, which both countries aim to increase to $10 billion. This move, warmly welcomed by the local business community, especially the Quetta Chamber of Commerce and Industry, marks a crucial step toward revitalizing Balochistan’s economy.
The new route will facilitate the flow of goods such as rice, textiles, and petroleum products, opening up new markets and offering a legal alternative to the informal, often illicit trade routes that have historically been a challenge. Beyond economic and security benefits, the initiative is part of a broader vision for regional connectivity, following the opening of the Gabd-Rimdan border crossing in December 2024.
As Pakistan strengthens its ties with Iran through the Kohak Cheedgi border crossing, Afghanistan is shifting closer to India, marking a critical moment in regional geopolitics. The recent high-level meeting between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai signals India’s growing influence in Afghanistan’s post-Taliban era. India’s focus on developing Iran’s Chabahar Port, bypassing Pakistan’s Gwadar, challenges Pakistan’s traditional leverage over Kabul.
Chabahar, positioned as an alternative trade route, counters Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, further complicating the region’s power dynamics. As these developments unfold in parallel, Pakistan finds itself in a precarious balancing act, navigating its complex ties with Iran and Afghanistan while contending with India’s rising influence in the region.
The strengthening of Afghanistan-India ties and the Chabahar trade route present Pakistan with both challenges and opportunities, reshaping its geopolitical landscape. As Chabahar gains prominence, Pakistan’s role as a transit route for Afghan trade is increasingly under threat, creating economic pressure, particularly given its reliance on transit fees.
To counter this, Pakistan must innovate by enhancing the efficiency of key routes like Torkham and Chaman, recently upgraded to handle significantly more cargo. Security concerns also loom large, as India’s growing influence in Afghanistan could embolden anti-Pakistan factions, such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Strengthening border management and intelligence-sharing with Afghanistan will be crucial for mitigating these risks.
On the diplomatic front, Pakistan’s deeper engagement with Iran offers a strategic counterbalance to the Afghanistan-India axis. By focusing on joint projects and boosting trade ties with Tehran, Pakistan can create mutual economic interdependence, solidifying its regional influence in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.
Pakistan’s strategic moves in response to the shifting regional dynamics reflect a keen understanding of the evolving geopolitical environment. The opening of border crossings with Iran is a tactical manoeuvre to create new trade avenues, fostering closer economic ties that challenge traditional power structures.
By linking up with Iran, Pakistan aims to reduce its reliance on global trade chokepoints and bolster local industries along the border, potentially creating a new axis of influence in the region. On the security front, Pakistan’s efforts to reimagine its relationship with Afghanistan are moving away from traditional diplomacy toward a more multi-dimensional engagement.
As evidenced by a recent discussion of political leaders in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with Chief of Army Staff General Syed Asim Munir where he reaffirmed Pakistan’s focus on strengthening relations with Afghanistan, highlighting the mutual desire for better relations while addressing concerns over cross-border terrorism and the presence of militant groups. China’s strategic investments in CPEC and ties with Iran and Afghanistan deepen regional complexities, with Pakistan’s alignment offering a counterbalance to India’s influence. By strengthening ties with China and Iran, Pakistan aims to solidify its geopolitical leverage, positioning itself as a key player in South Asia.
As Afghanistan strengthens its ties with India, Pakistan stands at a crossroads, balancing the need to protect its strategic interests while reshaping its regional role. However, the path ahead demands more than reactive measures, it requires proactive diplomacy, a deeper engagement with both Iran and Afghanistan, and a renewed focus on enhancing connectivity across the region. By tapping into its geographic and strategic strengths, Pakistan can turn these challenges into opportunities, ensuring its relevance in the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape of South Asia.
The writer is a freelance columnist and can be reached at zartajchaudhary @gmail.com