The distribution of water between India and Pakistan has long been a sensitive and contentious issue, deeply rooted in the historical, political, and environmental contexts of the region. This sensitivity has been starkly highlighted by India’s recent issuance of a fourth notice to its western neighbour within a year for a review of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
While the immediate concern appears to be centred around Pakistan’s objections to Indian hydropower projects on the western rivers, a deeper examination reveals that the underlying issues are much more complex. The rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers and the expansion of the monsoon season are significant factors that could lead to catastrophic flooding for both countries in the future. These floods pose a severe threat not only to Pakistan’s fragile economy, already grappling with various crises, but also to India, which cannot escape the impacts that such disasters would entail.
Last year, the Sutlej River experienced severe flooding that put Bahawalpur at considerable risk. If water had been retained at Ganda Singh, Indian Punjab would likely have faced substantial inundation, with floodwaters potentially reaching Rohi (Cholistan), the ancient region where the Hakra River once flowed. Similarly, the Yamuna River, another monsoon-fed river threatened to inundate parts of Delhi. While conditions this year have remained manageable, the possibility of additional rains in Himachal Pradesh during the final phases of the monsoon could exacerbate the situation, especially as the Bhakra Dam approached dangerous water levels. These incidents underscore the growing tension over water resources between the two countries and the urgency to address the environmental factors that are intensifying these conflicts.
Revisiting the Indus Water Treaty is not merely a bureaucratic necessity but has profound implications for regional stability
To fully grasp the current state of water disputes between Pakistan and India, it is essential to view the historical context through a broader lens. South Asia has a rich history of advanced water management practices, with ancient civilizations demonstrating remarkable expertise in utilizing water resources. The historical use of water in this region dates back thousands of years, with complex irrigation systems developed to enhance agricultural productivity. A key reference point is Chanakya’s “Arthashastra,” written in the 4th century BCE, which provides insights into sustainable water management techniques. Chanakya emphasized the importance of levelling land, constructing irrigation systems, and storing water effectively to prevent agricultural droughts while recharging groundwater supplies. His work underscored the necessity for government oversight in water distribution and the establishment of stable systems to respond to natural disasters, such as droughts and floods.
During the British colonial period, there was a concerted effort to reorganize water systems for agricultural enhancement, driven primarily by profit motives. The British expanded irrigation systems to boost agricultural output, focusing on cash crops like cotton and wheat that were in high demand in European markets. However, this approach was largely exploitative, prioritizing colonial interests while neglecting local techniques that had been employed for centuries by the indigenous population. The restructuring of water management under colonial rule largely ignored the sustainable practices of local communities, leading to significant long-term ecological consequences.
The Sutlej and Yamuna rivers, which once flowed through the Hakra Valley, were historically vital for sustaining life and agriculture in the region. However, as dry periods emerged, these rivers became fragmented in the Ganges and Indus basins. While this division played a role in maintaining the prosperity of both valleys, it ultimately resulted in the drying and desertification of the Hakra Basin, a tragic outcome that highlights the need for effective and equitable water management practices.
In today’s context, as Himalayan glaciers continue to melt at an alarming rate and the effects of climate change become increasingly apparent, it is essential to draw lessons from ancient water management practices. Learning from these historical approaches can guide contemporary strategies for sustainably managing water resources. Additionally, the planning and policies implemented during the British era need to be critically assessed from an environmental perspective to ensure that water management practices are effective in the face of changing climatic conditions.
Recent initiatives by the Modi government to link the waters of the Sutlej to the Yamuna and then to the Hakra River aimed at potentially reviving the ancient Saraswati River have stirred considerable debate. However, opposition from Punjab and environmental concerns, coupled with the recent experiences of flooding and warnings from environmental experts, indicate a growing recognition of the complexities involved in such ambitious projects. The rapid melting of Himalayan ice, predicted to leave the peaks barren in the next two decades, along with increasing incidents of landslides, poses significant risks to dams and hydropower projects, as well as to human populations and property. The escalating threat of major floods necessitates a thorough reassessment of the water-sharing agreements between India and Pakistan.
Revisiting the Indus Waters Treaty is not merely a bureaucratic necessity; it has profound implications for regional stability and cooperation. The first step in this direction involves creating a conducive environment for negotiations, a challenge that largely falls on India. Since the partition, issues ranging from the environmentally detrimental IWT to the Kashmir dispute have consistently emerged from Delhi, influencing the dynamics of water sharing and regional relations.
The expanded monsoon season, returning after four thousand years, presents a new reality that demands a fresh perspective on India-Pakistan relations. Addressing the threat of floods in the eastern rivers, ensuring equitable water distribution, and developing robust plans to mitigate natural disasters are crucial for the survival and prosperity of both nations. For Pakistan, which has historically faced water shortages that hinder environmental sustainability due to the India-imposed Indus Waters Treaty, asserting its rightful claim over the Beas River is crucial. If India is considering utilizing Sutlej waters for the revival of the Saraswati River and enhancing its commercial navigation (potentially leading to access to the Arabian Sea), Pakistan could also play a significant role in this planning process.
Ultimately, the ability of neighbouring countries to navigate the challenges posed by changing climatic conditions depends on cooperation and mutual understanding. The world is watching closely, and it remains to be seen whether India and Pakistan can collectively address the crises stemming from shifting weather patterns or whether they will require external assistance to overcome these challenges. The urgency for dialogue, collaboration, and innovative solutions has never been greater, as the impacts of climate change will continue to reshape the geopolitical landscape of South Asia.
The writer is an Islamabad-based veteran journalist and an independent researcher. He can be reached on Twitter @riazmissen