Throughout its seventy-year history, Pakistan has faced challenges in managing its strategic relationships effectively with major global powers, regional rivals, and non-state actors. The occasionally strained relationship between the United States and Pakistan is credited to various factors stemming from their extended involvement in Afghanistan since 1970s.
During the Soviet-Afghan War, both supported the Afghan mujahedeen operating through Pakistan. Following the Soviet withdrawal, the US disengaged from the region, leaving Pakistan to grapple with the aftermath. Subsequently, after the tragic events of 9/11, the US exerted pressure on Pakistan to join the ‘global war on terror’ resulting in a significant influx of foreign troops in the region.
The escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2024 has aggravated by a string of cross-border confrontations, with one particularly notable incident being a Pakistani airstrike on suspected terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan. The attacks in Pakistan have been attributed to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups operating from Afghan territory. Despite denials from the Afghan Taliban government about harbouring foreign armed groups, they have acknowledged the difficulties in controlling certain parts of the border with Pakistan. Complicating matter further is the presence of millions of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, with suspicions that some may have ties to extremist organizations proliferating all over the world.
The dynamic between the two neighbours is akin to a complicated family feud, with shifting alliances and conflicting interests at play.
The current situation is unpredictable, as accusations of aggression and sovereignty violations fly between both parties, highlighting the threat posed by groups such as TTP to regional peace and security. Close in the vicinity, the two bordering nations possess an intricate relationship that mirrors that of distant cousins, yet they encounter obstacles in reaching consensus and upholding a stable bond and alliance.
For years, Pakistan has been viewed as a supporter of the Taliban/Jihad since the 1970s and was believed to have significant influence over the Afghan leadership, providing them with shelter, food, funding, and diplomatic protection. However, with the onset of the ‘global war on terror’, a new player emerged – the Pakistani Taliban. This group, although ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban, turned against Pakistan and began waging war within the country.
The dynamic between these two neighbours is akin to a complicated family feud, with shifting alliances and conflicting interests at play. The impact of their discord extends beyond their borders, affecting regional security and stability of South Asia and the Middle East.
Pakistan had hoped to leverage its historical influence in Kabul following the return of the Afghan Taliban in late 2021. However, instead of stability, the country experienced a surge in inland terrorist attacks, making 2023 one of the bloodiest years in recent history.
Over 650 attacks occurred across the country, resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,000 individuals, predominantly from law enforcement agencies and the military. The majority of these attacks on security personnel were attributed to the Pakistani Taliban, as well as some other lesser-known armed groups.
In 2023, more than 90 percent of the attacks took place in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and the southwestern province of Balochistan, both of which share borders with Afghanistan. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to function at a significant scale in Afghanistan but conducts terrorist operations in Pakistan, often utilising Afghan nationals. Surprisingly, the Taliban government does not view TTP as a terrorist group; the bonds between them are strong, and the debt owed to TTP is substantial.
Pakistan is supposed to hold significant influence over Afghanistan for centuries’ old common history, hosting millions of Afghan refugees since 1979 and its status as the largest trading partner. Additionally, many Afghans reside permanently in posh localities of Pakistan especially in Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar.
However, recent attempts by Pakistan to repatriate refugees in response to increased violence have met with criticism both domestically and internationally. Employing these methods of influence might exacerbate tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, potentially harming both countries in the long term. As Pakistan grapples with these issues, there are concerns that the security situation in KPK and Balochistan will continue to deteriorate.
Extremist groups like the TTP and IS-K are likely to exploit the insecure political climate to launch further attacks against security forces. Let us not forget, the worsening security environment in Pakistan, along with persistent political chaos and economic instability, will continue contributing to the difficulties encountered in the whole region.
In light of these challenges, both Pakistan and Afghanistan must work towards fostering greater cooperation and stability in the region to address the root causes of insecurity and violence.
Instead of viewing counterterrorism as a burden, political parties and policymakers of Pakistan should learn to live with it, reassess their focus and allocate resources accordingly to combat this pressing menace. Policymakers must give top priority to counterterrorism efforts in order to mitigate these threats effectively.
A man’s gun is his jewellery. Pushto Proverb
The writer is a retired Pakistan Army Officer and can be reached at nawazish30@hotmail.com