The hunt for Osama bin Laden may be over, but the search for solutions to Pakistan’s self-created energy crisis is not. I say self-created because if our planning commission and our expert advisors had given some real time advice to the leaders of the country, we may not have seen the crisis grow as large as it is today. The citizens are clamouring for the restoration of their basic right to a quality of life as envisaged by our constitution. Conditions in Pakistan for the common man are becoming unbearable; his very survival is at stake — no electricity, no water, and in the sizzling summer months this can mean life or death for some. Where does the poor man go and where does our economy go? The whole country grinds to a halt!
The strategic planning and prioritisation of developmental needs in the country have to take into account the dire necessity to ensure stable and consistent energy sources. It has to allow for us to improve industrial growth for economic development, and to gain a competitive advantage in global trade. The estimates of loss in 2008 just for the industrial sector alone amounted to over Rs 160 billion with a value added loss of Rs 53 billion. These costs are not inclusive of the costs of electricity self-generation by the consumers. These also do not take into account the domino effect: the loss of revenue to smaller commercial enterprises and other related losses.
The fact that Pakistan’s energy needs have been completely ignored not only reflects negligence on the part of successive governments but also the poor capability of many advisors and experts hired by different governments during their stints in power. The Kalabagh issue has been flogged again and again. However, since 1992 (almost 20 years ago), the discovery of Thar coal deposits in Sindh drew attention as a crucial energy resource. We saw no major rush to get the much-needed energy from this vital source. According to some sources, it was due to the petroleum mafia (we in Pakistan are great with mafias — regular Sicilians must be our ancestors!). The other reason given was the low quality of coal.
A comparison of stripping ratio and heating value of Thar reserves with that of lignite produced in countries like Germany and Hungary that also use coal for power generation shows that Thar coal has a higher BTU (heating) value per pound at over 5,700 and dried coal has a BTU of over 10,400. What we see is a light at the end of the tunnel. Seemingly, initiatives have been taken to develop the resource. A white paper charts out the development of the initial infrastructure required for the purpose — a step in the right direction.
What is the technology that we are looking at to develop our coal reserves? Currently, underground coal gasification is one of the major technologies that is being considered. It may have risk factors that have to be assessed to gauge its success in real time application for generating mega power. We should be considering another modern supercritical technology that is being used by other countries; this is a step up from traditional coal power plants. It produces lower greenhouse emissions by improving the combustion efficiency of coal-powered plants, with about 750 gm of carbon dioxide per kWh (kilowatt hour) as compared to the world average of 919 gm carbon dioxide per kWh, utilising 1.7 million tonnes less coal. It is eligible for carbon credits under the clean development mechanism (CDM) for reducing its coal consumption by efficient energy production. It also has the capability, though not quite tested, to be able to eventually upgrade to the carbon capture and sequestration technology for liquefying carbon dioxide for disposal.
If we just look in our neighbourhood, we will see India’s planning and development strategy with a 2020 vision of energy for all. Currently, 65 percent of its energy is provided by thermal power, of which 83 percent is coal-based power. India is developing its energy sector to double its power generation capacity to 132,329 megawatts. To achieve this objective, it is adding to its current coal-powered plants by launching the Mundra coal power project by 2012 (under the Coastal Gujrat Power Ltd owned by TATA). The justification for international banks to finance such a seemingly ‘environmentally adverse’ project is the desperate need for more power to “continue India’s industrial growth and economic development”. The positive social impacts on communities and rural electrification in a country of a billion are the major motivators in its approval and corporate responsibility for investor justification.
India’s strategy to convince the environmental groups within and outside is to show them its move to reform the energy sector in the long run by providing incentives to alternative and clean energies for the private sector, including a higher rate of 30 cents per kWh in comparison to 5.65 cents of the Mundra tariff. The right approach in the public and private power sectors is to ensure that the best available technologies are used rather than settling for obsolete and cheap technology to cut corners.
The benefit of this unified stand on developing sustainability and harmony in the energy policy, plans and programmes will be an equitable sharing of resources, creating a balance of power amongst the provinces, achieved by developing natural resources in all the four provinces and diversifying our sources of energy. It is crucial to maintaining a unified and ‘whole’ federation. Currently, the proportion of energy from coal in Pakistan is negligible — only 0.10 percent of our total energy generation. We need to reduce our dependence on imported oil because of rising costs and on hydropower because of water scarcity issues looming ahead due to climate change. Our over-dependence on gas reserves has resulted in an extremely lopsided and thoughtless development and planning strategy that has added to the current crisis and to the miseries of the public. Buying electricity from other states/countries may not be as feasible, or economically sustainable as developing our own indigenous resources for long-term development. The development of Thar coal can be a major catalyst for the nation to unite and work towards common objectives.
The writer is an environment and development planning consultant. She can be reached at [email protected]