“It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop”. Confucius
Pakistan is in difficult circumstances; there are no two ways about it. Nevertheless, Pakistan is no stranger to political upheavals and is currently experiencing one of its critical periods of uncertainty; constitutional/administrative instability, financial complications, and religious fanaticism linked with terrorism astride the Western frontiers. The fall of the Imran Khan government in April 2022 produced a power vacuum, exacerbating already-existing societal divides, and the former prime minister twisted against Pakistan Army that once supported him out-rightly. The emerging bellicosity between a populist leader and the Army is always dangerous in the larger national interests. The repercussions could be far-reaching and may have long-term consequences for Pakistan. Given the prevailing World order, the emerging geostrategic environment, and the superpowers’ (US-China) interests in the region, the supervisory role of the Army in governance cannot be ruled out in Pakistan. Probably, we have to learn to live with it. Additionally, politics is an art of possibilities and reconciliation; confrontation never serves the purpose.
The worsening economic crisis is increasingly corresponding to the snowballing uncertainty of the political system in Pakistan. The world community regards Pakistan as an insecure and dangerous investment destination. The various factors deteriorating financial condition include inflation, unemployment, growth rate, and income inequality. Inflation and unemployment rates are particularly crucial, as they significantly affect the purchasing power of mass consumers and the growth prospects of businesses. Reducing income inequality, therefore, becomes a matter of utmost importance to ensure that all citizens have equal access to opportunities and necessities. Unfortunately, the corruption-dominated culture from top to bottom in all spheres has not permitted any kind of improvement in reducing ‘income inequality’ for the last seven decades in Pakistan.
Politics is an art of possibilities and reconciliation; confrontation never serves any purpose.
There is a real danger that Pakistan with a population of nearly 230 million people may be unable to meet its external debt obligations, which will trigger a sovereign default. To avert this scenario, Pakistan needs IMF’s continued support as well as help from Chinese and Middle Eastern partners. Pakistani leadership has been asking the United States to intercede with the IMF, but that effort has not borne fruit in the way Pakistan hoped for. If Pakistan ultimately defaults, there will be a cascade of disruptive effects. Crucially, Pakistan’s imports could be disrupted, which could lead to a critical shortage of essential goods/commodities, and may experience a looming ‘economic calamity’ shortly. And given the demographic profile of Pakistan, the resulting crisis could move in an unexpected direction.
The worst challenge to Pakistan is the increasing threat of terrorism and religious fanaticism along the Western borders. The roots of terrorism and religious extremism in Pakistan can be traced back to playing a crucial role as a ‘proxy to the USA’ during the Soviet-Afghan War. Later, the circumstances further worsened in the wake of the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, and Pakistan became a key ally in the Global War on Terror after 9/11. These two historical episodes are the ‘casus-belli’ for extremist groups to take hold and spread their messages of hate and sectarian violence in Pakistan. The terrorists continue to operate with impunity, striking at will and causing widespread fear and chaos amongst the general population. With each new attack, the sense of panic and uncertainty grows, and it seems as though a larger conflict is simply waiting to happen. To address the challenge of terrorism and religious extremism, the government and the nation as a whole need to intensify a multifaceted approach that goes beyond military options. Finally, Pakistan needs sincere regional cooperation to cut off funding and support to extremist groups, especially from its neighbours, India and Afghanistan. If these challenges are not addressed, Pakistan will remain a country wracked by terrorism having serious consequences for the South Asian region as a whole.
Pakistan has strong potential to withstand the impending threat and challenge. The imbalance of power between its civilian and military branches needs to be addressed to become an effective modern state. The road to prosperity lies through the continuity of an uninterrupted political system. Accordingly, GHQ should have no role to play in politics, in the formulation or destabilization of political governments; nor should they facilitate or show favour to a specific political party or politicians individually in any manner. What we lost sight of is that conducting war is easy, maintaining and organising politics is a more daunting task. Notwithstanding the above, financial corruption and selective injustice are multiplying rapidly in Pakistan today, not only in the lives of individuals but also in the top corridors of power. We should humbly beg our privileged for mercy so that they may realise the evil of corruption, and work hard to eliminate it. Last but not least all is not lost and there is always hope in desperate times. Prioritizing the essential needs of the nation will ensure overall development and an upward trajectory in the years to come. Uncertainty is the only certainty, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.
The writer is a retired Pakistan Army officer.