No way. This was the response whenever the question of free and fair elections was posed. Independent policies. Never. This was the instant reaction when foreign policy or economic decisions were concerned. Effective state-run institutions run by top professionals. This was the reaction when appointments to key state organizations were debated. These reactions and responses were justified as they were based on a consistent history. The two big party leaders were former employees of martial law governments. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who served Ayub Khan for six years, was the civil chief martial law administrator in 1973. Nawaz Sharif was the prodigy of General Ziaul Haq and the product of General Jillani. Thereafter, both parties proclaim to be democratic and independent, but time and again they have confessed that all elections after 1971 were won with the support of the establishment.
The politics of yesteryear cannot serve the politics of today. That is why the politicians of today are lost and still unfound. It was understood that certain MNAs and MPAs had the “nod” of the powerful people. They did not need to worry about their constituencies, as their election was “guaranteed” and their guarantors were untouchable.
With this 50-year history of a love/hate relationship with the establishment, it is but natural that any political decision or change without the PP i.e., the Pindi party, was unimaginable. Thus, democracy was not the will of the people but the will of the people sitting in the highest power corridors. The will of the people will count to create a semblance of the electoral wave, but the final count of the vote count was done by the powers who count. The electoral wave was also influenced by the rural electoral politics of the unaware combined with the indifference of those who are aware. Over the decades, the combination of forcing the masses to accept the grip of rural landlords and urban handouts of jobs, gas, and electricity worked to sway voters. With their heads down and embroiled in their day-to-day lives, people rarely bothered to stop, debate, or ask questions. The shift started in the 2013 elections and continued in 2018. However, what has happened since April 9, 2022, is historic and is endangering the carefully carved out engineered and “established” design of the power wielders:
Vote of No Confidence Vs the Vote of Confidence
The mystery of the 186 votes that knocked out PDM in the Punjab Assembly has caused a political sensation. The tried-and-tested formula of Asif Zardari was in full motion. The stakes for MPs missing the vote were much lower than if the opposition had called for a vote of no confidence. There was no disqualification at risk. As a result, persuading the powers was simple. The chief minister had already expressed his reservations about the decision. That added to the anti-assembly dissolution campaign. The usual drill of targeting MPAs was done. The routine of making calls to threaten them was accomplished. The smooth offering of millions was conducted. It was reported that a total of 20 maximum and 12 minimum MPAs would be absent. Rana Sanaullah had claimed that they would be taking the Punjab government back to Islamabad. Instead, he went to London empty-handed. The whole political community is in shock and awe. Only five MPAs were absent. The remaining 186 were all there. To hoodwink the opposition and their handlers, the deputy speaker said that VOC would take place tomorrow. He was technically correct, as it took place after 12pm the same night. This strategy will be written about in political history for years. But what is even more amazing is the resistance shown by the MPAs to threats and millions of rupees. That needs to be written about in books and Wikipedia. The MPAs put a vote of no confidence in the “established” way of threats and blackmail. The MPAs put a vote of no confidence in the millions offered. That is the “real” emerging power of public opinion and voter rejection. Remember that the MPAs had witnessed this power overwhelming the established powers in the June and October elections.
Shifting the Balance Between Mainstream and Alternative Media
A motivational speaker with one of Pakistan’s largest followings travels to meet Imran Khan for an interview. He exits the interview and says a few critical things about Imran Khan at random. The mainstream media just covered it as a routine. But on social media, all hell broke loose. It became the mainstream topic of discussion on social media. All the anchors and analysts made comments. Within days, his foundation’s rating dipped from 4 to 1%. This is just a small example of how the narrative balance has shifted out of the control of the traditional media. The scale, size, depth, and duration of social media have made the mainstream a minor stream. The viewership dependence on media is forcing biased anchors to become a bit more balanced. The fact that the motivational speaker had to reverse his opinion within a few hours shows you how power has shifted from producers to consumers, from analysts to viewers, and from narrative makers to narrative takers.
The Institutional Disturbance
Then there is the tug of war within the institutions. The Police are divided between the federal and the Punjab bosses. The ECP, cornered by PTI, is now trying to wriggle out of the “established” stamp. The Judiciary is caught in between its “balancing” act. The “understood” rules are now being challenged. There was a time when the power corridors in Islamabad and Pindi would call and get decisions as per Justice Abdul Qayyum’s audio precedence. However telescopic scrutiny that each decision is being put through in chat groups and public spaces has made them more circumspect. The recent decision by the judiciary to reject the postponement of local body elections in Sindh and Islamabad despite pressures is a good example of how the institution is trying to retain its sanctity. The fact that ECP announced Karachi elections on 15th January despite the refusal of the home ministry and the security agencies to provide total security is another indication of the ripples in the previous pattern of behaviour.
The Politics reversal
The politics of yesteryear cannot serve the politics of today. That is why the politicians of today are lost and still unfound. It was understood that certain MNAs and MPAs had the “nod” of the powerful people. They did not need to worry about their constituencies, as their election was “guaranteed” and their guarantors were untouchable. Not any longer. This reality is now turning into a myth, post the July 17 elections in Punjab and the October 16 elections. The two main parties, PPP and PMLN, which have always taken a bow to the dynasties of their ruling parties, are for the first time raising their heads and asking questions. One of their senior leader Khawaja Saad Rafique says Pakistan’s pock-marked democracy is a result of dynastic family politics. This is almost unprecedented. But that is how politics is reversing.
The country may be in depressing economic conditions. Things look terrible for the common man. Governance is absent. Unrest is present. Anarchy may soon start. Despite all this, the silver lining is a line that has the capability of overshadowing the red lines. A silver line that blurs action against the powerless and accentuates actions against the powerful. A silver line that erases the black lines of the blackmailers, money launderers and corruption mongrels. This sliver line is headlining for the first time that the fear of public backlash is more powerful than Pindi backlash. That for the first time the anchors are more afraid of viewer boycotts than media owner boycotts. And, that is when true democracy crosses out the cosmetic lines drawn by artificial power hoarders.
The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst and can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail,com. She tweets at @AndleebAbbas