Pondering about the nature of war, Roman statesman Marcus Cicero observed, “The Sinews of War are infinite Money.”
Though still applicable today, his statement could be revised to include technological supremacy and scientific prowess.
Since 1945, the US has been the predominant superpower, exercising global hegemony with its military might, economic power and industrial strength. Above all, the US is unsurpassed in its remarkable technological innovations, scientific achievements, and the quality of its research. However, America’s primacy is being eroded. China has emerged as a rival and a new Cold War has commenced.
Decades of economic growth and industrial progress have allowed China to accumulate financial power it can leverage for strategic purposes. Once, American companies dominated global markets. Today, Chinese firms like BYD, Huawei, Alibaba and SMIC are emerging as industry leaders in electric vehicles, IT, e-retail and chip manufacturing. Last year, China spent $392 billion on R&D but it was still less than the American expenditure ($607 billion). Nevertheless, China seems determined to overtake the West in critical technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Space, Robotics and Biotechnology. The Chinese lead in electric vehicles is already apparent, with just 1.8 Million electric vehicles sold last year, surpassing both the US and the EU. China launched its first exascale supercomputer last year, scaling ahead of the US. In response, the US blacklisted the Chinese firm, Tianjin Phytium IT, to prevent access to Taiwanese Semiconductor manufacturers.
The Sino-American Cold War will feature greater competition — a marathon for supremacy in high-tech industries.
Militarily, China has made impressive advances, which include ‘J20’ stealth fighters, ‘DF17’ hypersonic missiles and aircraft carriers for a blue water navy. These are accompanied by advancements in electronic and cyber warfare, placing China in a position to threaten the US navy’s ability to operate freely. Over the next decade, the US intends to deploy more assets to the Pacific as part of the Pivot to Asia. The growth of the Chinese Air Force has forced the US to concentrate on 6th Generation Fighters with Adaptive Cycle Engines. The US military still dominates, but China is catching up. Both countries are investing enormous resources in the struggle for military primacy – from nuclear submarines to new technologies such as hypersonic weapons, AI and Quantum Computers. An arms race of the magnitude last witnessed during the previous Cold War is underway.
China’s rise has caused much apprehension among its neighbours as well as the US. According to Richard Haas, a distinguished American diplomat, disputes between both countries are stark and fundamental–“they can be negotiated but never quite assuaged”. These include diverging views on Taiwan, an alleged disregard for American intellectual property, currency manipulation and cyber espionage. Contemporary events, such as the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan and subsequent Chinese military exercises, reflecting Beijing’s rage, indicate that the previous years of close partnership have ended.
Competition between the US and China also encompasses the economic and technological domains. The Biden Administration has responded to China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the Blue Dot Network. To reduce dependence on China, the US plans on investing $50 billion in manufacturing semiconductor chips domestically. President Trump banned Huawei from the domestic US 5G market and initiated the US-China Trade War. President Biden has followed up by announcing measures to restrict Chinese firms from accessing key technologies that enable the development of Artificial Intelligence and high-performance computers. This is in addition to the pressure on manufacturers to desist from supplying lithography machines for developing chips with fin field transistors to China. The UK, apprehensive of the Chinese domination of rare earth metals, launched its first critical minerals strategy.
The power within an international system is the sum of economic, military, institutional, cultural, political and technological influence. To paraphrase Sun Tzu, conflicts are decided before they are fought. The country that surpasses rivals in the tech domain will shape the future destiny of mankind. The USSR suffered from the lack of a private sector that couldn’t adopt technologies on a large scale. China is not hindered by this systemic impediment.
The Sino-American Cold War will feature greater competition – a marathon for supremacy in high-tech industries. This struggle for primacy inevitably entails a shift from cooperation to competition; with an emphasis on national security and strategic interests. The danger is that in the long run, we may see the development of two divergent hi-tech centres with incompatible technologies: China and the West. Dissimilar technological architecture and a lack of system interoperability will inevitably result in global economic inefficiencies and difficult procurement dilemmas for other nations. As of now, only a very optimistic individual would expect an immediate improvement in relations between the two countries
The writer is a freelancer.