The landscape of the Middle East is changing rapidly. Political and diplomatic changes taking place in the region are leading towards a new geostrategic environment. The relationship between Tehran and Washington remained cold after the Iranian revolution in 1979 but now they are holding negotiations. If sanctions are lifted on Iran it will be the dawn of a new beginning. Saudi Arabia, which has been a close ally of the US, is now looking at other options such as internal balancing and self-help. Ongoing crises and conflicts in Yemen, Syria and Iraq, the nuclear deal with Iran and the rise of Islamic State (IS) are challenges the world is facing now.
The Arab Gulf Summit took place at Camp David recently. It was expected that high officials from Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar would attend. Historically, there have been many occasions where the leadership of Middle Eastern states remained divided. The major objective of this summit was to give the clear message that, irrespective of ongoing tension, the US and its allies were still on the same page to fight terrorism and bring peace and stability. The absence of the Arab leadership at the Gulf Summit organised by President Obama raised a number of questions. The new Saudi head, King Salman, did not attend the summit, signalling his displeasure with the US’s ongoing nuclear deal with Iran. Along with King Salman, three to five other heads of state also did not attend the summit.
President Obama, during his address, assured that the ongoing deal with Iran would not affect the US’s relations with its long standing allies. He assured a security umbrella to his allies in their time of need and promised to defend these states against any external attack. But it seems like the other party was wishing for something like US support in fighting the Iranians and the proxy wars in Yemen and Syria. They wanted to have a defence treaty like NATO or at least a pact to arm them with high tech weaponry. President Obama repelled these offers as Congress would never allow such a treaty pledging arms sales to Arab states keeping in view the historical rivalry of Israel with a number of these countries. The summit did not fill the gaps between the US and its Middle Eastern allies. The summit was not enough to deal with the emerging threats that may end up in regional wars in the Middle East or trigger a nuclear arms race in the region.
Saudi Arabia is most annoyed by the ongoing rapprochement between the great powers and Iran. It vows to match Iran’s nuclear capability. The Saudi intelligence chief went to South Korea recently and said that it would also get whatever Iran had right now. US officials have tried their best to satisfy the Gulf leaders on how the deal with Iran aims to curb Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. There are two concerns in the Arab world right now. First, they are not happy with Iran having the capability to produce nuclear fuel for different purposes and, hence, it should be halted immediately. Secondly, they are concerned about the re-entry of Iran in international affairs. Iran was under economic sanctions and isolation but now chances are that the interests of Washington will stand divided. It is believed that after sanctions are lifted, Iran will have more resources and will utilize them to serve other purposes instead of domestic needs. The king of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa, also did not show up, going to the UK to attend a horse show. At the end of the summit, Obama assured that the US was always ready to help its allies if any external aggression takes place. Regardless of these pledges a new school of thought is emerging in the Middle East: the US turning its back on the Middle Eastern region overall. This thought has sparked debate focusing on how allies of the US will act autonomously. On the matter of Syria, Secretary of State John Kerry informed the participants of the summit that the US is looking for a political transition in Syria and that Arab countries should adopt a rational approach by taking the US into confidence to bring stability and peace to the region.
Political disputes can never be resolved through military means. The use of force has never been fruitful in resolving political issues. It has always made the situation worse and has helped terrorist organisations by weakening the central government. The US has realised this fact and now is negotiating with Iran. All the regional states should take one thing into account: it is the right of Iran to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. The demands of the Gulf States for military equipment, training and planning seems irrational when the US is trying to fix the issue diplomatically. Most likely a comprehensive agreement will be reached in the coming few weeks removing sanctions from Iran. The removal of sanctions will bring back Iran as a major player in regional affairs. All states should look for policies that can bring peace and stability to the region instead of chaos and conflict. War is always costly and ends up in destruction; it should never be a first choice.
The Persian Gulf region is nowhere near insignificant because of its geostrategic location and oil reserves. The leaderships of these states need to think and act rationally to deal with security challenges. Giving all the blame to the US for discriminatory policies is not a good option. Efforts should be made to settles disputes diplomatically and bring home stability and security. Obama’s efforts should have been welcomed differently instead of creating confusion by not attending the discussion table.
The writer is an M Phil scholar at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad