It is commendable that the Punjab government plans to build a new Metro line in Lahore, which has a population of approximately 10 million people, many of whom travel long distances to reach work and business destinations. They need affordable and reliable multi-transit systems with buses and trains to commute daily. While trains cover longer distances in a short period of time, buses are better in accommodating for shorter and local travel.
At this moment we have been privy to very limited information on the proposed Metro line. Speculative reports in the press suggest that the Metro line will be 27.1 km long, cost $ 1.6 billion and will be built both above and underground. The Metro line will be built by the Chinese as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Agreement and will be completed in 27 months. Besides this limited information, no further details have been provided to the public either because it has not been developed or it is preliminary in nature and cannot be divulged.
Building an electrified Metro line is a very complex phenomenon that involves experience and expertise in many branches of engineering, namely planning, design, construction, coordination, commissioning, operations and maintenance. The components required to mesh the total system include heavy civil/structural engineering, electric traction power, train signalling, communications, tracks, third rail or overhead trolley wire, electrical distribution and many other engineering functions specific to a Metro line. While it is not cutting-edge technology, the engineering functions are unique in their application to a Metro line. The Lahore Metro project needs experienced management staff, engineers from many disciplines and construction workers who have experience in building similar systems. A few examples will elucidate the complexity embedded in building a new Metro line.
A very good estimate of passengers expected to ride during the morning and evening rush hours is of paramount importance. This number will translate into the number of trains to be operated per hour. The number of trains per hour is used to develop the train timetable, total electric power needed and to select a heavy or a light rail system. Further, the selection of either a light or heavy rail will dictate the structural strength of the over ground structure. It is well known that the failure of overhead structure is a recipe for major disaster.
Electrified train coaches, which are self-propelled, are not an off-the-shelf item. It takes two to three years to design, build and test a coach. Each Metro line has its own unique requirements such as seating/standing capacity, safety considerations, public address system and, most importantly, whether to fit the coach with a pantograph for overhead power, or install a power collector to obtain power via the third rail.
The Metro line will need trained and well-qualified staff to operate trains. Trains will need regular maintenance, repair and storage. Modern coaches come with electronic equipment and have programmed computers on-board that control many functions in a coach. A separate storage yard (many acres of land) that can also house a repair shop and a command and control centre is an essential part of the line.
In order to start the construction phase, engineering calculations and studies followed by detailed design for all systems is a pre-requisite. These include soil borings along the length of the line, environmental studies, structural calculations, train operation simulations and design drawings for all systems. This task is both complex and time consuming. There is no short cut to it.
The cost of the Metro Line, as published in papers, is given as $ 1.6 billion. This is a large sum of money, about 10 percent of the current Pakistani foreign reserves. Who will finance this fund? If it is being financed by Chinese banks, have the details of interest rates and terms of payment been negotiated? How has the estimate been determined without even preliminary engineering? Since there is no bidding or competition, we do not know if this amount is a fair price or hugely inflated figure.
It is difficult to envision the Chinese government bringing in hundreds of engineers and construction workers from China to Lahore to build the total line by themselves. If this approach is agreed upon, it will not only be extremely expensive but provide no experience or training to local Pakistanis who must take over after the Chinese leave. This will also deprive employment opportunity to thousands of Pakistani workers, both skilled and un-skilled.
The construction period of 27 months, as noted in papers, appears as to be an underestimate. Experience in building similar lines in the US indicates that a fast track timeline of five years is more appropriate than 27 months. The estimate of five years is based on the assumptions that all type of expertise and experience is available, all construction equipment can be easily purchased and there is no funding restriction. In the case of the Lahore Metro, none of these assumptions are applicable.
Finally, the Punjab government should establish a Metro authority to be comprised of management and technical staff. This authority should coordinate with and oversee the Chinese company to ensure that Lahore’s needs are being considered. The Metro authority should also ensure that technology transfer is part of the agreement with the objective that when the construction is complete, and operational tests have been carried out satisfactorily, the Pakistanis can take over the line without any hesitation.
The writer is a freelance columnist