Is a NAFTA showdown approaching? on October 30, 2017The NAFTA war is heating up. It’s a confusing conflict because perceptions are driven by political rhetoric, not economic reality. NAFTA, of course, stands for the North American Free Trade Agreement, which has eliminated most tariffs among the United States, Mexico and Canada. During the campaign, candidate Donald Trump denounced NAFTA as a bad deal […]
Are entrepreneurs a dying breed? on October 1, 2017Maybe we’re not “‘Shark Tank’ nation” after all. The incredibly popular reality television series, which features budding entrepreneurs pleading for backing from wealthy investors (the “sharks”), seems to define us. We’re a nation of hungry go-getters, eager to start our own business on the way to becoming multimillionaires. Everyone wants to strike it big. There’s […]
The curse of middle-aged capitalism on August 21, 2017A persisting puzzle about the US economy is how it can seem both strong and weak. On the one hand, it remains a citadel of innovation, producing new companies such as Uber. On the other, the economy is expanding at a snail’s pace of 2 percent annually since 2010. How could both be true? Why […]
Trump’s great growth debate is all about guesswork on August 14, 2017The argument between the Trump administration and its critics over a sustainable rate of economic growth raises profound questions about America’s future. Have we entered a prolonged period of slow growth? If so, how does that alter society and politics? Or will the “right” policies raise growth to past levels? If you haven’t paid attention, […]
Janet Yellen is caught between Trump and a hard place on August 7, 2017Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve, is caught between President Trump and a hard place. By most accounts, Trump is an “easy money” guy who would prefer to keep today’s low interest rates to boost job creation. For her part, Yellen has committed the Fed to a gradual rise in rates and a […]
The looming labour ‘shortage’ isn’t just a problem it’s also an opportunity on July 3, 2017For months, I’ve planned to write a column on the future of the U.S. labour market. Stacked on my desk are reports on “the gig economy,” “independent workers,” “contingent workers,” “freelancers” and the like. All signify a new, less secure labour market. Workers won’t have long-lasting career jobs, as the old post-World War II employment […]
Is the next recession being postponed? on July 3, 2017This is not your father’s inflation – and that’s good news. Business cycles often end when higher inflation causes a country’s central bank (the Federal Reserve in the United States) to raise interest rates, slowing the economy and, perhaps, triggering a recession. The good news: The next recession may be delayed, because the Phillips Curve […]
The perils of too much government lending on June 26, 2017Among the many things it does, the federal government is one of the nation’s largest lenders. It lends to farmers, homeowners, students, small businesses, exporters and rural electric utilities, among others. Altogether, there are more than 100 loan programs administered by about 20 agencies overseeing lending worth $3.4 trillion in fiscal 2015, up from $1.5 […]
America sings the postindustrial blues on June 25, 2017Ever since President Trump’s election, a cottage industry of politicians, journalists, scholars and commentators has sought to understand what motivates Trump supporters. Theories have ranged from globalization to a rebellion against Washington elitism to racism. But the true cause may have been overlooked: the “postindustrial society.” It has imposed on the economy a wage structure […]
Globalisations ill effects have been wildly exaggerated on May 22, 2017Globalization has gotten a bad rap. The Trump White House associates it with all manner of economic evil, especially job loss. The administration has made undoing the damage a central part of its economic strategy. This will almost certainly fail and disappoint, because globalization’s ill effects have been wildly exaggerated. A new report shows why. […]