It is viral and it is everywhere. FATF’s demand from Pakistan “to do more” is echoing once again. Video of a very strong worded warning spelled out by Xiangmin Liu, Chairman of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is bouncing here and there on social media groups. The decision from international task force has revealed that Pakistan has time until coming February to improve upon alleged counter-terror financing operations and bring them in line with the internationally agreed strategy. With a definitely created restlessness amongst masses, Pakistan will have to wait for another review in few months’ time and till then Pakistan would continue to be enumerated in the gray list. As per the report card handed to Pakistan, it was allotted 9th position out of ten.The Asia Pacific Group agreed that with respect to Technical Compliance Ratings where Pakistan was declared fully compliant with only one recommendation. However it was termed largely compliant with nine, partially compliant with twenty-six and noncompliant with four recommendations of the FATF.
The last 16 months have never been easy for Pakistan and Pakistan’s fragile economy. Since June 2008, the day it was listed on “gray list”, Government of Pakistan has been struggling to avoid the catch 22 situation, a label of being a non-complaint country. So, it is quite discouraging for Islamabad to continue in the list which features Ethiopia, Trinidad, Tobago and few others. It is indeed an offensive treatment for Pakistan to be branded as proprietor of less credible financial structure which allegedly poses risk to international financial system due to its “strategic shortcomings”.
On one hand where Pakistan was struggling to keep its nose above FATFs waters, while on the other hand India, kept continuously pressing to enhance difficulties for Pakistan openly campaigning its dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s counterterrorism measures. Alleging Islamabad’s compliance steps as mere cosmetic actions, India kept on demanding FATF to blacklist the country once and for all. Indian research papers and media had already labeled Pakistan as Golden Crescent for alleged terror financing and money laundering. However, Pakistan survived for now, somehow.
For people with eye on global politics, it was easy to observe that New Delhiwas not alone in this bid to pressurize Islamabad. United States somehow supported Indian narrative. Pakistan already knew that Washington is still indecisive whether to trust Islamabad’s intentions or remain apprehensive about the evident yet allegedly cosmetic steps taken by the new government. While future remains obscure, at least for now United States seem to believe that Islamabad could be continuing with its allegedly rogue policies against India and Afghanistan. Negative thought prevails in Whitehouse that Pakistan could be deliberately making a calculated effort sufficient enough to stay out of Black list. Washington somewhat believes that Pakistan is not willing in real sense to undertake measures on a long-term basis despite the fact that Islamabad has done a much including arresting Jammat Ud Dawa leadership despite lack of evidence and tremendous domestic pressure.
The effectiveness assessment carried out by FATF team’s remains indifferent to the effort and allocation of scarce Anti Money laundering and Counter Terror Financing resources despite capacity and constraint issues to address their commitment about addressing the risks
Up till now Pakistan thought that FATF would be just a leverage to push Islamabad a little bit so that it could bring the Taliban in Afghanistan to work out a peace settlement with Washington. But it seems FATF is being used to leverage much more beyond the visible US-Taliban talks. In longer run FATF appears to coerce Pakistan to “Do Even More” whether Islamabad liked it or not. Pakistan does not have any issue with “Doing More” so far unless the China factor and CPEC manifesto is not adversely affected. Pakistan would be stuck between a rock and a hard surface if this ever happens, which I believe may happen in not so distant future.
While the lapses on part of Pakistan in compliance of international obligations cannot be defended, however it looks like that FATF has proceeded against Pakistan without some sympathetic realization. Many countries, particularly those like Pakistan face capacity and resource constraints, yet continue to struggle and face legitimate challenges in attaining complete satisfaction on FATF recommendations. The environment for compliance of international measures is different for Pakistan and many other countries like Pakistan. Pakistan’s immediate neighborhood is the hub of money laundering. Iran and India also provide a conducive space for money laundering and terror financing while it is a business norm in Afghanistan where extensive growth of opium and its trafficking is paid with same laundered and smuggled currency. A small percent of population has a proper bank account at a formal financial institutions in these countries.The effectiveness assessment carried out by FATF team’s remains indifferent to the effort and allocation of scarce Anti Money laundering and Counter Terror Financing resources despite capacity and constraint issues to address their commitment about addressing the risks. It also needs to be noted that why different FATF assessment teams treat financial inclusion and exclusion differently in countries with similar levels of financial access and proceeds-generating crime? Large size of the informal sector and more frequent use of unregulated channels to transfer money in many developing countries like Pakistan cannot be stopped all at once, especially where international borders are too long, rugged and difficult to secure or monitored. And besides these, how come FATF recommendations could be followed where unfortunately, corrupt government officials and politicians were themselves involved in significant money laundering operations in Pakistan?
For Pakistan stakes are higher than ever before. The decision by FATF does not affect Pakistan’s already impoverished economy only but also indicates the loss of diplomatic space. Despite the relevance of Pakistan in the region and its ability to exercise its diplomatic influence in an arena higher than its economic stature, the recent decision has unwrapped Islamabad’s vulnerability. Pakistan could not convince its allies and friends during the FATF mutual evaluation process, which relies on peer reviews to assess Pakistan’s level of compliance.
Pakistan should keep trying to attain maximum to mitigate the risks identified by FATF. However, one thing is for sure that in any case it cannot be put to face financial exclusion since this will enhance the existing risks manifolds. Though, a more systematic and less of a punitive approach would be required by FATF to evaluate the risks and help Pakistan overcome its difficulties in months to come.
The writer is a versatile analyst and a speaker on contemporary issues