For the first time in over two decades, a Kazakh president has visited Islamabad, and he’s calling Pakistan a “reliable and important partner in South Asia and beyond.” In a whirlwind of ceremonies, Pakistan and Kazakhstan inked 27 agreements and MoUs across sectors from petroleum to mining to maritime affairs. Ambitious targets aim to double the current trade to reach a $1 billion volume in the next year. Yet behind the warm handshakes and lofty declarations lies a stark baseline. Bilateral trade between Pakistan and Kazakhstan was a meagre $250 million last year.
Kazakhstan’s ambassador, Yerzhan Kistafin, has already made an appearance on national media, sketching a vision that could quietly redraw Eurasia’s economic map. At the heart of his plan is an iron silk road: a railway linking Kazakhstan to Pakistan’s Arabian Sea ports via Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. The economic stakes are enormous, considering how a Pakistan Business Council study suggests that if transit bottlenecks are removed, annual trade with Kazakhstan alone could swell to $14 billion.
Still, for all the visionary talk, politics on the ground remain a formidable barrier. Pakistan’s main gateway to Central Asia today runs through Afghanistan’s Khyber Pass, and that lifeline remains badly frayed. Faced with this bottleneck, Islamabad is scrambling for alternatives. One solution lies high in the mountains of northern Pakistan. Officials are said to be quietly working to revive the ancient route linking Chitral to Tajikistan’s Badakhshan region. While the terrain is daunting (a 12,000-foot alpine crossing), a modern road and tunnel through Dorah would cut the overland distance from Karachi to Central Asia by hundreds of kilometres.
Pakistan has also dusted off the Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA), a pact originally signed in 1995 with China, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, offering a northern backdoor to Central Asia by sending goods from Pakistan into western China, and onward through Kyrgyzstan to reach Kazakhstan and beyond.
For now, the geopolitical winds seem to have shifted in Pakistan’s favour. Russia’s war in Ukraine has upended Central Asia’s traditional supply lines through the north, and eager for alternatives, landlocked republics are gazing south.
Recent diplomacy reflects this opportunity. High-level exchanges with Central Asian states have surged, and the Kazakh president’s visit is part of a broader re-engagement. Uzbekistan’s president is slated to arrive next, building on a transit trade deal that has already eased the movement of goods like Pakistani agricultural exports to Tajikistan.
Talk of strategic partnership and brotherly countries now abounds in Islamabad. But translating warm words into real wins will require unflinching focus. The reality check is sobering: despite all the MOUs and forums, Pakistan’s total annual trade with the five Central Asian republics still hovers under $500 million.
Nevertheless, Pakistan’s leaders insist this time will be different. “We will not only reinvigorate our relations but also give a huge impetus to our bilateral ties,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared, vowing speedy implementation of the new agreements. The coming months will test that resolve. *