Air as hot as the inside of a furnace; that is the harbinger of the monsoon in Pakistan. With climate experts claiming record-breaking temperatures this summer, instead of fearing what is to come, the country is guilty of treating it as an expectation; an unwelcome expectation, but not an abnormal one.
The narrative of collective resignation at the climate conditions that prevail in the country needs to be evaluated and then realigned towards building a framework that looks at reducing climate-related disasters and developing a sustainable future. Since Pakistan’s strategy regarding climate hazards has mostly been focused on relief and rehabilitation, it has not successfully prevented climate-related crises, particularly floods. It becomes imperative for Pakistan to adopt a proactive approach by prioritising pre-emptive measures over reactionary ones.
For the past few years, Pakistan has seen the devastating effects of the monsoon, manifesting primarily in the form of floods, as it damages infrastructure, agriculture, human settlements, and the overall economy. Effects of climate change, coupled with the unpredictability of the monsoon and prolonged El Nina events have caused immeasurable grief to Pakistani citizens. Relevant authorities are struggling to devise effective means to tackle this inherently volatile phenomenon. This is where non-traditional methods of combating natural disasters can be actively utilised, such as the human security framework. Human security looks at the nexus between the environment and the social aspect of vulnerability. This is particularly helpful because this framework is less concerned with the product or the aftermath, and more so with taking precautionary measures such as building self-sufficient communities.
A recurring problem for Pakistani authorities has been to convince its citizens to evacuate from vulnerable areas.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) which is responsible for developing policies on curbing national disasters, climate-related or otherwise, has published the Monsoon Contingency Plan every year without fail. These reports are comprehensive in their research and maintain a record of risk evaluations, vulnerability mapping of communities, and structural challenges towards disaster management. However, frameworks towards mitigating climate-related disasters need to be fleshed out into long-term solutions since dated reactionary approaches to a recurring problem are unsustainable and counterproductive for socio-economic growth.
When comparing the 2010 and 2022 floods and the ensuing devastation, there are obvious differences in the scales of both disasters, however, they both resulted in similar tragedies across the provinces. With a 12-year gap and the advent of ground-breaking technologies, such as the Geographic Information System (GIS), which supplements research and monitors atmospheric changes, projecting early warning signs in 2022 and 2023 should not have been a difficult task. And yet, the floods once again resulted in widespread devastation.
While the loss of life was cut by half, the number was still in the thousands. The floods in 2022 resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis as well, where millions were displaced, and the damages and reconstruction costs were consistently overwhelming. In 2010, the overall recovery and reconstruction cost was estimated at approximately USD 8.74 billion to 10.85 billion and in 2022, the estimated damages exceeded USD 14.9 billion, where rehabilitation and reconstruction costs were at least USD 16.3 billion. Given the existing precedent for national agencies and stakeholders to learn from, Pakistan ought to have experienced fewer damages. Or is the country doomed to repeat the same mistakes unless there are no losses to bear?
Understandably, it is difficult to develop resilient infrastructure while keeping the resource constraints and the increasing intensity of climate change in mind. However, certain impediments that contribute to the increased damages and reconstruction costs are in the government’s control and therefore, can easily be mitigated. As an example, a recurring problem for Pakistani authorities has been to convince its citizens to evacuate from vulnerable areas. People are prone to resist relocation and prefer to receive relief at the site of the devastation. This is also part of a wider problem related to encroachment and settlements alongside riverbanks or on natural waterways.
These are problems that the authorities can control through institutional frameworks guaranteeing protection for civilians. This can be achieved through interventions and initiatives aimed at climate literacy and ensuring that vulnerable communities are relocated and properly compensated. To realise this, the government needs to act as a conduit between different sectors. This can include utilising academia to build strategies through research and consequently leveraging the private sector’s capability to develop new technologies and innovative solutions based on this research. This collaboration would not only facilitate capacity building across the board but would involve all stakeholders in the decision-making process.
As monsoon approaches, time is of the essence and should be spent on taking measures that improve risk reduction through pre-emptive strategies by prioritising targeted development of individual communities, consistently and reiteratively, year after year to build resilience and foster collective growth.
The writer is a researcher at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore. She can be reached at [email protected]